Investors are hyper-focused on Tesla's ambitions to proliferate physical artificial-intelligence technology throughout the global economy. The car business still matters, though, and investors are about to get a car business update.

Tesla's third-quarter delivery numbers are due on Friday. Wall Street is looking for about 460,000 deliveries, according to FactSet. It's important to remember there are multiple consensus estimates. The company-compiled consensus of more than two dozen brokers is for about 451,000 deliveries.

Anything in the 450,000 car-range will probably be fine for analysts and the stock price. The 451,000 consensus number would be down about 6% from the second quarter and down about 9% from the roughly 497,000 cars delivered in the third quarter of 2025. Last year's third quarter was boosted by the September expiration of the $7,500 federal electric-vehicle purchase tax credit. The credit boosted last year's number, says One Global exchange-traded fund cofounder Gary Black. "I'm at 470,000... China soft, U.S. solid... Europe OK."

The Chinese car market faces slowing demand growth, reduced government support, and brutal price competition. In the U.S., Tesla is benefiting from other auto makers selling fewer EVs now that the credit is gone.

General Motors sold 670,974 cars (of all types) in the U.S. in the third quarter, down about 6% year over year. GM's EV sales were only about 25,000 units, off more than 60%.

Investors can expect some reaction to a good or bad Tesla delivery number. Car sales, however, have been less important lately. Investors are focused on AI efforts, including robo-taxis and robots.

Tesla launched a robo-taxi service in Austin, Texas, in June 2025. Scaling the business has been slower than expected, giving investors some consternation. As for robots, Tesla recently discontinued Models S and X to install robot-building capacity in its Fremont, Calif. plant. Investors, however, haven't seen the updated version of Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, yet.

Cars are still important, though. They generate a lot of revenue, and Tesla needs cash to invest in AI. The company is planning to spend about $25 billion on new plants and equipment in 2026, up from roughly $8.5 billion in 2025.

Predicting Tesla's stock reaction to any event is never easy. Tesla sold about 480,000 cars in the second quarter, blowing away Wall Street projections for 406,000 deliveries. The stock dropped 7.5% in response. But shares had run up about 12% in the days ahead of the report.

The reaction to any one data point never gives investors a complete picture of what's going on. Mainly, a short-term move tells investors something about investors' expectations.