The latest Market Talks covering Equities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0756 GMT - IG Group Holdings' lower 2026 guidance is driven by lower over-the-counter income retention and a weaker market backdrop, RBC Capital Markets' Ben Bathurst says. The online trading platform's new 2026 revenue guidance suggests earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization between 490 million and 500 million pounds, RBC says, which would be 16% lower than the Canadian bank's estimates. "A lower than expected revenue retention rate of 70% for OTC business also looks to have been a material driver of the miss, but we note revenues would have been below our expectations irrespective of this, as there was an implicit 16% miss on non OTC revenues," the analyst adds. The lower retention follows a recent decision to hedge less of the OTC book, RBC added. Shares are down 22%. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0749 GMT - Gold prices tick higher as markets scale back expectations for imminent interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. "A drop in U.S. Treasury yields overnight along with more cautious commentary from Fed officials is helping to support gold while PCE inflation released earlier in the week came in below expectations for August," says Soojin Kim from MUFG. The probability of another 25-basis-point hike at the FOMC's October meeting has fallen to 28%, from around 70% a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. The nonfarm payrolls report due later Friday is expected to be the next major catalyst for gold prices. In early European trading, New York gold futures are up 0.3% to $4,212.80 a troy ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0734 GMT - Nike's latest update points to a market that remains soft overall and is seen as a headwind for JD Sports, Shore Capital analysts David Hughes and Clive Black write. Nike reported a 4% fall in first quarter brand revenue, with growth in apparel offset by declines in footwear. "Overall, for JD we see this latest Nike update as a sign of an ath-leisure market which remains challenging and a key brand partner which is still working through its turnaround strategy," the analysts say. Shore Capital has a hold rating on JD stock and a 75 pence target price. Shares are down 1.1% at 80 pence and are 5.2% lower over the year to date. (ian.walker@wsj.com)

0730 GMT - MediaTek has strengthened its position in the premium smartphone chip market over the past few years, Counterpoint Research analyst Shivani Parashar says in a report. Since the launch of its Dimensity 9000 chip in 2022, it has expanded its presence across flagship Android smartphones, supported by deeper partnerships with Chinese smartphone makers, she says. The recent launch of the Dimensity 9600 Pro marks another important step in MediaTek's premium push, she says. The timing is particularly important as the premium smartphone segment enters a more challenging cost environment with rising memory prices, she notes. MediaTek faces several competitors in the premium smartphone chip segment, including Qualcomm, Samsung Electronics and Huawei's HiSilicon, she adds. Shares last ended 0.6% lower at $4,950 New Taiwan dollars. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

0724 GMT - European stock indexes nudged higher at the open, but not enough to recover sharp losses in the last session. The continent-wide Stoxx 600 is 0.3% higher after falling 1.3% Thursday. Technology and industrial stocks lead the risers, though banks remain weak. London's FTSE 100 gains 0.2% as software names rally and consumer-facing stocks gain. The index is dragged by IG Group, which plummets 26% after a business update. The French CAC 40 gains 0.5%, led by a 2.9% jump for carmaker Stellantis. Pharmaceutical group Sanofi falls 4.05%. Germany's DAX adds 0.4%. Chip maker Infineon gains 2.5%, though Commerzbank is down 1.9%. Italy's FTSE MIB is flat, while the Spanish IBEX 35 adds 0.1%. The Dutch AEX is 0.5% higher as ASML rises 1.5%.(josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0709 GMT - Commerzbank doesn't have enough share price upside to compensate for higher risks and less visibility from UniCredit's plans for the German bank, RBC Capital Markets' Anke Reingen and Sherry Lin write. The acquisition of UniCredit's German unit HVB by Commerzbank would be a "sensible move", RBC says, with a potential return on investment of 11% by 2030. Commerzbank's CEO has said the lender could potentially buy HVB in shares as one of several options to increase UC's holding in Commerzbank. However, execution risks in this complex setup are heavily concentrated in Commerzbank. As a result, lower earnings visibility and higher cost of equity have led RBC to cut its price target on Commerzbank stock to 40 euros from 43 euros. RBC lowers its recommendation to sector perform from outperform. Commerzbank shares closed at 39.40 euros on Thursday. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)

0644 GMT - China's policy stimulus package is still a positive step despite its limited scale, according to BofA Securities in a research note. The package offers "targeted support to boost investment and stabilize the property market, while falling short of sending a strong easing signal on meaningful policy pivot to lift public expectation," the bank says. It thinks the move implies that policymakers are taking the first steps to stabilize growth, while still remaining "relatively comfortable" with aggregate demand given strong exports, they say. "Unless we see meaningful correction in export growth and/or fiscal deterioration, the probability of launching a more aggressive policy stimulus package will remain low," the bank says. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0638 GMT - BofA Securities turns bullish on BHP, citing an improved outlook for copper prices. It raises its share-price target on BHP to 68 Australian dollars from A$65 and upgrades the stock to buy from neutral. That follows a 20% lift in its long-term copper price forecast to US$13,577/metric ton. BofA views a site visit to BHP's Australian copper operations in November as a key catalyst. "We expect the site visit to give the market greater confidence in the ramp-up of mined volumes," it says. Shares ended up 1.6% at A$61.21. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0624 GMT - Telkom Indonesia (Persero) may benefit from the completion of phase two of its spinoff of the wholesale fibre connectivity business into Telkom InfraCo, UOB Kay Hian analysts say in a research report. The completion will further consolidate this business into Telkom InfraCo, strengthening its scale ahead of a potential strategic stake sale, the analysts say. Also, management is evaluating whether to consolidate additional fiber assets before proceeding with the strategic investor process, which could further increase Telkom InfraCo's scale. The brokerage maintains the stock's buy rating, but lowers the target price to 3,300.00 rupiah from IDR3,600.00 to partly reflect a potentially longer timeline for value-unlocking of Telkom InfraCo. Shares are 0.4% lower at IDR2,240.00. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0542 GMT - Tocalo stands to benefit from strong inquiries from semiconductor production equipment manufacturers, SMBC Nikko Securities' Hiroharu Watanabe says in a research report. The Japanese company is highly competitive because it can provide SPE makers with leading-edge technologies, the analyst says. Thermal-spraying coatings, in which the company specializes, need redoing after a certain period, giving this business a consumables-like element. The brokerage lifts its net profit forecasts for Tocalo to 12.2 billion yen from Y10.5 billion for the current fiscal year ending March 2027 and to Y14.6 billion from Y11.9 billion for next fiscal year. It raises the stock's target price to Y4,200 from Y4,000 and keeps its outperform rating. Shares last 0.8% higher at Y2,978. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0508 GMT - Japanese stocks look attractive, especially when the dollar is trading above 152 yen, T. Rowe Price's David Clewell says in a note. The 152 yen level is significant because it is broadly in line with the foreign-exchange assumption found in the Bank of Japan's tankan quarterly survey for Japanese companies, says Clewell, a portfolio manager. He says when the yen is weaker than that level, that can support upward earnings revisions for Japanese exporters. The Nikkei Stock Average is 1.0% lower at 68263.54. The dollar is at Y157.82. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)

0453 GMT - Lynas's planned acquisition of Meteoric Resources appears to be at least initially about securing heavy rare-earths supply for its expanding Malaysia refining plant, says UBS. The bank says the deal demonstrates the increased interest in Brazil for rare earths. It says it's "mindful the potential (risk and/or opportunity) for further LYC investment in the region, particularly around refining capacity." UBS trims its share-price target on Lynas to A$21.00 from A$22.50. That reflects the deal and capex required to develop Meteoric's Caldeira project, it says. The bank keeps a buy rating. Shares in Lynas are up 0.6% at A$12.72, after falling by 8.6% Thursday on the takeover news. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle) 0022 GMT - The economics of Liontown's Kathleen Valley--the first global large-scale, bulk underground lithium operation--don't look great, according to Jarden. It says that while "the cost base is still being established...it is much higher than consensus estimates reflect." The remarks follow updated project numbers alongside a final investment decision by Liontown. "While we hold the Kathleen Valley orebody in high regard (and equally LTR management for building a high-quality underground mine and processing plant), we have long questioned the economics of this highly capital-intensive extraction method for what is ultimately a low-grade, high-volume commodity," Jarden says. The bank has an underweight rating on the stock. It cuts its stock target to A$0.75 from A$0.88. Shares are up 5.1% at A$0.83, after losing 15% Thursday. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle) 0001 GMT - Rio Tinto is the cleanest way to be long iron ore and cautious on copper while