Global Commodities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
2小时前

The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1533 ET - U.S. natural gas futures settle higher for a fourth straight session as cooler weather forecasts favor early-season heating demand, which could limit storage builds for the remainder of the injection season. The EIA on Thursday is expected to report a 79 Bcf inventory build for last week, according to a WSJ survey of analysts. That would reduce the storage surplus over the five-year average for an eighth consecutive week. "After cooler trends the past few days, it's likely there won't be a [weekly] build over 100 Bcf this shoulder season," NatGasWeather.com says in a note. The market is also watching Tropical Storm Isaias that's expected to reach the U.S. Gulf coast Friday as a hurricane. The storm could affect offshore production and LNG operations, but "impacts from cooler temperatures and rain won't be as notable as they would be in July through mid-September when a tropical system would bring relief from heat," NatGasWeather.com adds. Nymex natural gas settles up 2.9% at $3.2030/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1521 ET - Live cattle futures on the CME inched lower, falling 0.2% to $2.237 a pound. The slight decrease came as traders found the market directionless. "Cattle markets are pulling back from yesterday's price surge as traders await direction from the cash fat cattle market," says Brian Grete of Commstock Investments. A stronger U.S. dollar put pressure on commodities as a whole throughout the day, including agriculture and livestock futures. Lean hog futures settled 1.9% lower at 69.075 cents a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1358 ET - Gold futures post their third decline in four sessions as the U.S. dollar gains and buoyant U.S. yields keep a lid on demand for the metal with the market looking to the Fed minutes for interest-rate guidance. Earlier gains in oil prices had put pressure on precious metals, given the inflationary implications of higher energy costs. Front-month gold settles down 1.1% in New York at $4,113.80 a troy ounce and silver falls 2.1% to $59.899 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1316 ET - U.S. benchmark crude slips after the EIA reported a 3.2 million barrel withdrawal in commercial crude oil stocks for last week, despite expectations for a third consecutive weekly build. Product inventories were mixed with gasoline stocks up by 382,000 barrels and distillate stocks down by 42,000 barrels. "Oil stockpiles remain tight but the crunch isn't clearly getting worse," says David Russell of TradeStation. The inventory drop was the result of an adjustment "so it may overstate the magnitude of the draw," he adds. WTI is off 0.7% at $88.79 a barrel and Brent is up 0.2% at $100.75 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1245 ET - New record-highs for Treasury yields and their influence on a stronger U.S. dollar are a pressure point for commodities as a whole, says Brian Pullam of Linn & Associates. "Usually when we see this type of trade, wheat gets the brunt of the selling in grains," says Pullam. The most-active wheat contract falls 2.3% while corn slides 1.1% and soybeans drop 0.7%. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its last meeting at 2 p.m. ET, with investors watching for more details on the Fed's approach to managing inflation and whether more rate hikes are on the way. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1213 ET - Gold futures are lower as the U.S. dollar gains and the market looks to minutes of the Fed's latest meeting to gauge prospects for interest rates. "A more hawkish reading, showing persistent concern over inflation and limited appetite for easier monetary policy, could lift Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and creating near-term downside pressure," Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets says in a note. A more dovish interpretation "could pull real yields lower and strengthen demand for bullion." Gold for December delivery is down 1.3% in New York at $4,132.20 a troy ounce. Silver is off 2.3% at $60.16 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1211 ET - Export sales of U.S. corn have the potential to sharply increase versus the prior week, according to analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. Analysts forecast that corn export sales for the week ended Oct. 1 could be as high as 1.7 million metric tons. That would be more than double of the 536,000 tons sold last week, according to USDA data. Trading of corn futures today has been anchored by data from last week's stocks report from the USDA, which showed more corn inventories than expected by the market. "Last week's bearish stocks report is keeping a lid on prices for now," says Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing in a note. Most-active CBOT corn futures fall 1%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1033 ET - Oil futures are higher in early U.S. trading with continuing tensions in the Middle East and the market watching the storm heading for the U.S. Gulf coast. Tropical Storm Isaias is expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the U.S. coast late Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center, although the projected path has shifted east of the main oil-producing areas. Consulting firm Earth Science Associates estimates the storm could result in shut-in production of about 11.2 million barrels of oil and 13.3 billion cubic feet of natural gas. Front month WTI is up 0.6% at $89.98 a barrel and Brent gains 1.2% to $101.76 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1027 ET - Lean hog futures are lower, with the most-active contract down 1.3% to 69.475 cents a pound--continuing the downturn seen Tuesday. Fund traders are seen cutting their exposure, says StoneX in a note. "Is this the market anticipating and pricing in the recognition that funds will eventually need to liquidate or roll those Dec. short positions forward?" says the firm, in reference to the over 110,000 short contracts held by managed money as of Sept. 29, according to CFTC data. The figures show that fund traders are carrying a net short of over 44,000 contracts. Live cattle futures fall 0.6%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0949 ET - Copper prices remain above $14,000 a ton, with supply-disruption risks limiting the prospect of easing concentrate tightness, ANZ analysts say. Weaker South American mine output, the Democratic Republic of Congo's export ban and El Nino-related disruptions have constrained concentrate availability, keeping treatment and refining charges under pressure. Weak smelter margins are also weighing on refined copper production, particularly in China, while wage negotiations at Chile's Escondida mine pose another supply risk. Although global copper inventories are at multi-year highs, nearly 70% are held in the U.S., tightening availability in other markets, ANZ says. Demand remains resilient, supported by investment in power grids, AI, data centers, electric vehicles and new-energy infrastructure. With the market undersupplied by around 1% of annual demand, the analysts expect prices to find support near $13,500 a ton, with upside potential to $15,000 a ton. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0947 ET - Harvested grains traveling to ports in New Orleans via the Mississippi have so far had a smooth season, but may be in for shakeup if Tropical Storm Isaias becomes a hurricane and makes landfall off of the Gulf coast this weekend. "Freight remains relatively loose on the Lower and mixed across the locking rivers, but the Gulf weather threat adds a new supply-side variable at a potentially important point in October," says Joe Davis of Futures International in a note. "If Gulf unloads are materially disrupted, fewer clean empties will become available for repositioning just as harvest progresses and October contract needs begin drawing on the fleet." Corn belt farmers are in the process of harvesting their fields, with harvesting expected to continue into November. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0934 ET - The U.S. dollar's recent run-up could maintain momentum based on what today's Fed minutes reveal, Infinox's Thadeu Dos Santos says in a note. While an October rate hike has been largely priced out, any evidence of broad support for further hikes could rebuild short-end yields and extend the dollar's gains, the analyst says. A more cautious readout could reverse those gains, he says. After that, Thursday's jobless claims report will provide another potential catalyst, indicating whether the latest signs of labor market weakness is broadening, the analyst says.

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