Apple (AAPL) could see App Store growth accelerate after September's rebound and Services revenue keep growing, with solid iPhone demand and a below-average valuation outweighing gross margin and supply chain headwinds, UBS said in a note Tuesday.

App Store revenue grew 5% in September, lifting fiscal Q4 growth to 2%, or 1% excluding currency effects, with the US down 7% and the rest of the world up 7%, the investment firm said.

The September rebound from a flattish August is an incremental positive but too early to extrapolate, with October facing a 180 basis point harder comparison and the first full month of EU App Store changes for a region making up just over 10% of App Store revenue, according to the note.

UBS left its Services estimates unchanged but flagged the App Store slowdown as a downside risk, seeing revenue growth of 9.9% in fiscal Q4, below the 10.3% consensus estimate, and 13.0% in fiscal 2026 versus the 13.1% consensus.

UBS kept its neutral rating and $296 price target, citing solid iPhone demand but growing gross margin and supply chain challenges.

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