A bullish 'golden cross' technical pattern has appeared for the first time in more than three years. The last one worked out pretty well.

A "golden cross" pattern has just appeared in bitcoin's chart, which in the past has led to some pretty healthy gains.

After a rough start to the year, bitcoin has enjoyed a renaissance over the past few months - enough to produce a pretty rare, positive chart pattern.

While that pattern, with the inviting name of "golden cross," isn't necessarily meant to time market purchases, history suggests that, at the very least, it shouldn't be ignored.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) tumbled 34% over the first half of 2026, but has soared more than 40% in just the past few months.

"The charts of bitcoin, and other leading cryptos, continue to look encouraging from a technical point of view," David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, said in recent emailed notes to clients.

Effectively, the recent sharp rally and positive chart outlook "have shaken out short sellers," Morrison wrote, meaning those who were betting on bitcoin to fall were forced to close those positions. It has left them "unwilling to re-establish fresh shorts," and in turn encouraged fresh buyers, he wrote.

All this comes after bitcoin suffered some bad news in mid-September. The Clarity Act, aimed at creating a regulatory framework to help bolster the cryptocurrency market, failed, but prices didn't fall. On Wall Street, that kind of signal - not falling on bad news - can be read as a sign of underlying strength.

On Friday, bitcoin's 50-day moving average - a short-term trend tracker - rose above the 200-day moving average, which many view as a dividing line between longer-term uptrends and downtrends.

That "golden cross" is not unlike a participation trophy, as it shows that bitcoin has put in enough time and effort that it deserves to say it's now in a longer-term uptrend.

For some traded instruments, buying when a golden cross appears, or selling when its opposite - a "death cross" - appears can be hit or miss. But for bitcoin, these moving average crossovers have preceded some pretty nice moves.

The last crossover, a death cross, appeared on Dec. 11, 2025, when bitcoin closed at $92,638, according to FactSet data. It fell another 36.8% before bottoming at $58,548.13 on June 30.

Before that, the last golden cross appeared on March 6, 2023, with a bitcoin close of $22,398. The 50-DMA came rather close to falling below the 200-DMA a few times, in October 2023 and in October 2024, but the uptrend resumed in time to keep the golden cross intact. And bitcoin soared 457% before it peaked at $124,836 on Oct. 6, 2025.

Looking at FactSet data back to the start of 2018, there were three other golden crosses: Sept. 17, 2021, June 15, 2020, and May 20, 2019. Bitcoin peaked after those bullish crossovers, with gains of 59% in two months, 615% in 17 months, and 62% in five weeks, respectively.

History doesn't always repeat itself, but it's hard to argue that it's not a good track record, at least for the short term.

A further rally in bitcoin could support the broader equity market, as it suggests investors are acting in a risk-on fashion.

"The latest price action shows that bitcoin remains highly sensitive to liquidity expectations, Treasury yields and institutional flows rather than moving solely on crypto-specific news," said Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer of Zaye Capital Markets.

-Tomi Kilgore