Winter is coming, and so too are the heating bill scaries. But don't get too worked up. As it turns out, many households could be in for a pleasant surprise this year, thanks to falling prices for natural gas -- the most common space heating source in the nation.

The upshot is that homes heated with natural gas are expected to spend 9% less on their winter energy bills for the next five months through March, according to a new report from the Energy Information Administration.

Households using propane will get a break too, seeing bills around 3% lower. Since more than half of all homes are heated with either natural or propane gas, the relief will be widespread.

The prospect of lower heating costs may be surprising considering that international oil price futures were trading around $100 a barrel Tuesday. But the price of natural gas isn't directly tied to crude. As worries persist about the shrinking global oil reserves, the U.S. actually has a surplus of natural gas that is 2.4% above the 5-year average, according to the latest EIA data. Propane supplies, meanwhile, have risen 12% in the past two years.

That surplus has led to lower prices, which have actually hurt natural gas producers like Pennsylvania-based EQT, whose shares have fallen 2% this year, and Texas-based Expand Energy, which is down 20% in 2026.

The news isn't all good for consumers, especially if you rely on heating oil, like many households in the Northeast. Heating costs there are expected to rise 21%, the EIA forecasts, largely due to rising crude oil prices. That projection is a much more modest increase than the one from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, which estimated a 50% spike in its outlook last week.

The one silver lining for those in the Northeast is that temperatures are expected to be warmer than last year, which could help keep increases in check.