The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0255 GMT - Recent sharp gains in U.S. Treasury yields have put equities under more pressure, Capital Economics' James Reilly says in a note. The rise in yields has brought about some of the poorest returns from most U.S. stocks in years, despite equity risk premia falling to historically low levels and analysts remaining optimistic on earnings, he says. If yields continue to rise, earnings expectations would start to wobble owing to the prospect of higher borrowing costs, he notes. "If yields remain high much longer or rise further, more serious cracks may soon emerge in the stock market," he adds. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0240 GMT - The Singapore dollar weakens slightly against its U.S. counterpart in the Asian session on possible position adjustments. However, the Singapore dollar may be supported by the weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report released Friday. The report "reinforced expectations that the Fed may pause at its Oct. meeting," says UOB's Global Economics & Markets Research team. For today, market participants will likely be monitoring whether the U.S. ISM services PMI data point to a moderation in economic momentum and support prospects that the Fed will stay on hold this month, the team adds. The U.S. dollar is 0.1% higher at 1.2804 Singapore dollars, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0140 GMT - Asian currencies may garner some "near-term relief" from the weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, two strategists at OCBC Group Research say in a note. The "report took some of the urgency out of further Fed tightening," the strategists say. However, they are "cautious about extrapolating this into a broad-based Asian FX rally." Long-dated U.S. Treasury yields are still elevated while oil prices remain high, keeping oil-importing Asian currencies like the Indonesian rupiah, the Philippine peso, and the Thai baht relatively more exposed, the strategists add. The dollar is little changed at 62.486 pesos and is 0.1% higher at 33.56 baht, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0116 GMT - Indonesia's 2026 fiscal deficit target of 2.85% of GDP looks achievable, but persistent subsidy costs, planned tax relief and uncertainty over state investment fund Danantara's dividend payments add to fiscal risks in 2027, CIMB economists say in a note. Limited room for additional spending could remain a recurring theme next year, they say. Planned income-tax relief could also weaken government revenue, though higher Danantara dividends may provide some fiscal support at the expense of its investment capacity. The government's 31 trillion rupiah stimulus package should cushion household purchasing power, but rising inflation could prompt Bank Indonesia to raise rates sooner. CIMB maintains its call for a 25bp rate hike in December, though persistent rupiah pressure and a more hawkish Fed could bring the hike forward to October. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0018 GMT - JGBs are mixed in price terms in the early Tokyo session ahead of an expected extraordinary Diet session in Japan and a policy speech from Japan's PM Takaichi today. Once the session starts, "greater focus on funding for items whose scale was not specified at the budget-request stage could prompt expectations of increased JGB issuance and put upward pressure on yields," two rates strategists at Barclays Securities Japan say in a research report. The five-year JGB yield is down 0.5 bp at 2.365%, while 10-year yield is unchanged at 3.100%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0013 GMT - Japanese stocks are higher in early trade after a weak U.S. jobs report lowered expectations for further Federal Reserve rate increases. Electronics and machinery stocks are leading gains. Advantest is up 4.0% and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is 2.5% higher. The dollar is at 157.67 yen, little changed from Y157.63 as of Friday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are closely watching headlines related to the Iran conflict, crude oil prices and bond yields. The Nikkei Stock Average is up 2.0% at 69651.14. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)
0003 GMT - Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar in early trade, but may be aided by reduced Fed rate-hike prospects that tend to diminish the appeal of U.S. fixed-income assets. "Financial markets judged September's softer U.S labour market report as giving the FOMC more time to assess conditions before adjusting policy further," ANZ Research analysts say in a research report. Also, "senior Fed officials have signalled there is no need for urgency, and markets have sharply reduced expectations of an October rate hike," the analysts add. The U.S. dollar edges 0.1% lower to 157.68 yen, but is little changed at 1.2793 Singapore dollars, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2346 GMT - Japanese stocks may rise after a weak U.S. jobs report eased expectations for the Fed's further rate increases. Nikkei futures are up 1.7% higher at 69915 on the SGX. The dollar is at 157.77 yen, compared with Y157.63 as of Friday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on developments in the Iran conflict, crude oil prices and bond yields. The Nikkei Stock Average fell 0.9% to 68309.46 on Friday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)
2117 GMT - Napier Port's new bull at Forsyth Barr is upbeat about its pricing plans. New tariffs for FY27 suggest unit pricing gains of 9% for containers and 5% for bulk cargo. "Assuming a stable volume environment, unit pricing gains should sustain Napier Port's mid-teens Ebitda growth in FY26 through FY27," analyst Andy Bowley says. While scrutiny on the port sector's pricing power has increased, Forsyth Barr see scope for Napier Port to continue to use pricing to drive improvements in its return on invested capital. It upgrades Napier Port to outperform, from neutral. "Napier Port is currently trading at 10x one-year forward enterprise value-to-Ebitda, broadly consistent with its trading history on a bond-rate-adjusted basis," Forsyth Barr says. Napier Port is down 0.3% at NZ$3.66 today.