Basic Materials Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
10/06

The latest Market Talks covering Basic Materials. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0808 ET - Suncor Energy's sale of interests in Eastern Canadian offshore assets for at least C$1.2 billion makes strategic sense, even if the transaction looks largely net present value-neutral, Raymond James' Michael Barth reckons. Suncor is selling its 48% interest in Terra Nova, 40% interest in White Rose and 38.6% interest in West White Rose offshore assets to Ithaca Energy. Barth notes Suncor also is transferring about C$1.4 billion of liabilities. The assets have a relatively short current life, and an exit frees up cash for share buybacks or accelerated growth in Suncor's core portfolio, the analyst says. Raymond James retains an outperform call and C$118 target on Suncor's shares. (robb.stewart@wsj.com)

0651 ET - Laopu Gold now offers value, says Henry Soediarko of CrossASEAN Research. The analyst's assessment comes as the stock has lost about 60% of its value since hitting a peak in January, when gold prices surged to all-time highs. Compared with its July 2025 record, the stock has plunged by 70%. While plenty of pre-IPO investors have taken profit, Soediarko argues that the Chinese jeweler is "actually doing quite well" based on operating figures. Laopu Gold is different from Chow Tai Fook Jewellery in that it's "more of a global luxury house than a goldsmith," the analyst writes on Smartkarma. At a price/earnings ratio of 7 times and a 10% dividend yield, Laopu Gold may offer value, he adds. Shares last ended 0.6% lower at HK$325.20. (farah.elias@wsj.com)

0423 ET - Malaysia's palm oil sector's outlook could improve as Malaysian palm oil inventories approach a cyclical peak and the lagged impact of El Nino begins to weigh on production, Public Investment Bank analyst Chong Hoe Leong says in a note. Inventories will likely peak around October before declining from November, providing a stronger basis for CPO prices to recover, he says. A stronger-than-expected El Nino could further tighten global palm oil supply, with production in Malaysia and Indonesia potentially falling 3%-8% under moderate to prolonged dry conditions, he reckons. Higher crude oil prices could also boost palm oil demand for biodiesel, while Indonesia's B50 biodiesel mandate is expected to provide additional structural support, he adds. Public IB maintains an overweight rating on Malaysia's plantation sector, pegging Sarawak Plantation and TA Ann as preferred picks. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0341 ET - Glencore is ramping up capital allocation to its marketing division in the wake of the Middle East conflict, Citi's Ephrem Ravi writes. The miner and trader has a 2026 earnings tailwind due to elevated and volatile commodity markets, he says. The company has upgraded its long-term EBIT guidance for the marketing division, which will likely push consensus expectations higher, he adds. The company had $32.2 billion of readily marketable inventories in the unit as of the first half of the year versus $25.4 billion last year, he says. The company could further ramp up capital allocation to the marketing business over the remainder of the year, he says. Shares rise 0.46% to 653.90 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0322 ET - Air Liquide's earnings per share growth ambitions through 2030 are in line with consensus but its margin target is ahead of views, Jefferies analysts write. The industrial gases company wants to grow net earnings per share by a compound annual growth rate of 10% over the period while targeting a 400 to 600 basis point improvement in its margin. Margin growth consensus expectations are currently sitting around the 360-basis-point mark, they write. "Importantly, management has historically proven conservative at the outset of strategic periods, with guidance subsequently upgraded through the cycle," they add. Shares rise 2.6% to 174.58 euros. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0100 ET - Tosoh Corp.'s earnings may be hit by weak polyvinyl chloride market conditions, say SMBC Nikko Securities analysts in a report. Increased supply of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate from new plants of other companies is also near-term concern. In late September, BASF said it had secured an industrial site in India and was advancing a feasibility study for a potential MDI production complex there, they note. In June, Covestro unveiled plans for an MDI project in China and a feasibility study for another project in the U.A.E. The brokerage lowers Tosoh Corp.'s target price to 2,500 yen from Y2,600 with an unchanged neutral rating. Shares are 0.8% higher at Y2,624. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2143 ET - Gold rises in Asian trade. A softer-than-expected U.S. personal consumption expenditures reading released end-September likely tempered Federal Reserve rate-hike bets in October, Societe Generale says in a note. "The markets priced roughly a 40% chance of an October Fed move, offering gold a tentative foothold as it entered October," SocGen says. A higher interest-rate environment typically weighs on the yellow metal. The precious metal's moves appear to be defined by a "tug of war" between structural buyers--central banks and exchange-traded-fund flows--and macro headwinds such as a strong dollar and increased interest rates, SocGen adds. Spot gold rises 0.3% to $4,155.78 a troy ounce. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

1710 ET - A key attraction of Lynas Rare Earths's all-share acquisition of Meteoric Resources is the ability to access more heavy rare earths, suggests Jefferies. Meteoric owns the Caldeira rare-earths project in Brazil's Minas Gerais state. Jefferies models first production in FY34. Analyst Mitch Ryan notes a definitive feasibility study for Caldeira pointed to output of dysprosium and terbium of some 127 tons/year. That adds a material second heavy rare earth feed source alongside Lynas's existing Mt Weld project. "Our model reaches 151 tons/annum at run rate, 64% of Mt Weld's modelled 235 tons/annum," Jefferies says. "Diversification and potential exposure to separated heavy rare earth pricing support the strategic case, subject to mine delivery and sufficient downstream capacity." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1653 ET - Northern Star Resources's acknowledgement that it received a US$27.2 billion takeover proposal from Gold Fields is likely to encourage shareholders to pressure on board to consider future proposals, says Ord Minnett. Its price target rises by 31% to A$25.85/share. "Our revised valuation suggests the proposal was rejected more for its significant, higher-risk (jurisdictional) equity component than its overall implied value," analyst Paul Kaner says. He reckons a higher cash component, higher-quality scrip, or a more compelling premium could increase the likelihood of Northern Star formally engaging with a potential suitor. Ord Minnett upgrades Northern Star to accumulate, from hold. Northern Star ended last week at A$24.02.

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