TradingKey - On October 9, Eastern Time, Tesla (TSLA) shares rose over 3%, reaching a new high since late July. According to the latest statistics from the China Passenger Car Association, Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory delivered over 95,000 vehicles in September 2026, higher than the 90,000 units in the same period last year, up about 5% year-on-year and 10.7% month-on-month. This is also the 11th consecutive month of year-on-year growth for Tesla's Shanghai car plant.
Notably, in contrast to the growth in sales of Shanghai-made vehicles, Tesla's global deliveries in the third quarter declined by 2.1% year-on-year. This comparison was affected by a high base effect in the same period last year: in the third quarter of 2025, Tesla's global deliveries reached a record high.
Despite the year-on-year decline, global deliveries this quarter still exceeded analyst expectations. UBS analyst Joseph Spak noted that deliveries were about 5% above the market consensus expectation, indicating that vehicle deliveries continued a recovery trend.
However, UBS also stated that prior to the data release, buy-side investors' expectations for deliveries had been steadily rising. Therefore, the extent to which deliveries exceeded consensus expectations may not fully align with the degree to which they surpassed investors' actual expectations. Whether Tesla can resume full-year growth after two consecutive years of declining deliveries remains to be seen in the fourth quarter.
UBS reiterated its Neutral rating on Tesla following the release of delivery data, maintaining its target price at $385. The firm noted that while automotive deliveries were strong, energy deployment figures fell short of expectations. The pace of energy deployment is inherently volatile and difficult to forecast precisely; since the gross margin of this business is higher than the company average, the underperformance will have a slight impact on earnings forecasts.
In the Chinese market, Tesla continues to support demand through purchase incentives. Designated Model Y vehicles are eligible for a RMB 7,000 final payment discount, while purchasing any Model 3 model offers a RMB 5,000 discount, with both promotions extended through the end of October.
As automakers compete on technology, range, and price, promotions help attract consumers and sustain sales growth. However, increased discounting may also lower average selling prices and exert pressure on automotive profitability. Therefore, the key focus for the fourth quarter is not only whether deliveries can continue to rebound, but also whether sales growth can translate into margin improvement.
Tesla stock chart, Source: TradingView
Tesla's current stock price is crossing above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level ($381.11). This represents a breakout attempt at the upper boundary of the recent consolidation zone, strengthening the short-term structure.
Following a sharp decline in July, the stock price gradually recovered from around $297.38, forming a rebound pattern of higher lows from August through September. After testing near $385 in late September, it pulled back, found support around $350, and pushed toward the upper boundary of the consolidation zone once again. The significance of this rally lies in retesting a level that had previously encountered repeated resistance.
On the upside, focus first on the $378.52 to $381.11 range. Formed by the 5-day moving average and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, this area corresponds to a region where previous upward moves repeatedly stalled, making it the primary test zone for whether resistance can turn into support. If the stock price stabilizes in this range, it could advance toward $403.87.
On the downside, the main risk is that the daily chart falls back below the core pivot, with the 5-day moving average failing to provide support. This would invalidate the "consolidation upper boundary breakout" thesis, and price could retreat to the second moving-average confluence zone; if this region is also lost, the recent pullback lows will need to be retested.
Find out more