Nvidia stock has been on a stellar run, surging to a record high last week. Earnings season could well keep the momentum going with many of the chip maker's customers expected to report strong results in the weeks ahead.

But when it comes to the technical analysis, the stock -- currently trading at around $229 -- could be at risk of peaking and taking a sharp downturn.

The weekly stock chart over the past 18 months or so resembles a "big, bearish, rising wedge," Walter Zimmerman, chief technical strategist at ICAP Technical Analysis said in a note Saturday. "The converging support and resistance lines reveal waning upside momentum...even as prices continue to make new all-time highs," he added.

A decisive weekly close below the support line would be a sell signal, but "amazingly enough, that has not happened yet," he added.

In terms of the levels to watch, the "first warning signal" would be a decisive monthly close below $204.84. A monthly close below $185.94 and "the real problems would begin," Zimmerman said.

The first daily level to test whether the current pattern points to the stock peaking is $210, the strategist noted.

Away from the technical analysis, Nvidia is in talks to buy -- or invest more in -- open-weight model developer Reflection AI, the Financial Times reported Saturday. Nvidia didn't immediately respond to a request for comment Monday.

Earnings season will bring plenty of signals around the demand for AI chips but the technical analysis is worth keeping an eye on -- particularly after the stock's 26% jump over the past six months.