Now things are getting confusing, and AST SpaceMobile stock is now for the bravest investors.
Since SpaceX bought more wireless spectrum this past week, Wall Street has upgraded, downgraded, and reiterated AST SpaceMobile stock as a Buy with 140% return potential.
The range of opinions is widening, leaving shares of the space-based communications company more controversial than famously controversial stock Tesla.
The drama started Thursday, when SpaceX announced its intent to buy 14 megahertz of wireless spectrum -- essentially the pipes that carry wireless data -- in the 800 megahertz band. That upended wireless communications stocks, as investors feared that SpaceX would soon launch a competing mobile product.
AST stock was also hit hard, dropping more than 10% on Friday after the SpaceX announcement. Investors may have preferred AST to buy the spectrum -- a reason for disappointment -- but Berenberg analyst Michael Filatov pointed out that with SpaceX moving into mobile communications, AST is a natural choice for traditional wireless companies looking to compete with SpaceX.
AST could be in a better spot now. Then on Monday, Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft upgraded AST shares to Buy from Hold, saying SpaceX's efforts to compete with AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon Communications will "antagonize the Big 3... pushing them even closer to AST."
On Tuesday, however, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter cut his AST rating to Hold from Buy and dropped his price target to $54 from $98, citing SpaceX's ability to gate access to space. (SpaceX accounts for about half of global orbital launches.)
There's more. After the downgrade, Clear Street analyst Greg Pendy wrote that SpaceX has its own launch risk. SpaceX needs Starship, which is still in development, to launch new versions of Starlink satellites. He sees AST as the safer bet. Pendy's AST price target is $115, up about 144% from Tuesday's closing level of $47.06.
Now, Wall Street's AST price targets range from $54 to $115, according to FactSet. The $61 difference is about 130% of the current price. The bull-bear spread for Tesla stock is closer to about 110% of the current stock price. Apple shares aren't as controversial. The bull-bear spread for Apple stock is close to 50% of the current price.
The bull-bear spread for SpaceX stock is about 460%, but that's because of an unusually high $800 price target from Raymond James. The bull-bear spread for AT&T shares, which is embroiled in the SpaceX disruption situation, is about 70%.
So what are investors to do? Well, they can watch to see how things develop. They aren't buying early Wednesday. Shares were down another 5.8% to $44.34, while the S&P 500 was off 0.3%.
Investors can also develop their own view of AST's valuation to decide if there is an opportunity after the recent selloff. Wall Street doesn't seem to be much help in that effort now.
Analysts still have some estimates investors can use. The company doesn't generate significant sales yet. It is still building a satellite network.
AST has about a dozen satellites in space. With 50 or 60, it can provide broadband service in the U.S. Eventually, it wants to operate hundreds of satellites. Continuous service should start in 2027. Wall Street sees 2027 sales rising to almost $600 million from $164 million in 2026. By 2029, sales are expected to hit $2.8 billion, generating earnings per share of about $2. So AST stock is trading for about 23 times 2029 earnings.
Time will tell if that's a good value.