Neoclouds in the 'Penalty Box': How SpaceX Pricing Could Help CoreWeave Rebound

Dow Jones
昨天

CoreWeave stock may be battered and bruised but investors received some much needed positive news from SpaceX earnings.

SpaceX Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen, on the company's earnings call Tuesday, sounded a bullish tone on demand for its artificial-intelligence solutions and infrastructure segment and that the company is "actively" building supply to meet both internal and external demand for computing power.

Johnsen added that current pricing for AI computing power is tracking toward the high end of its $30 to $50 per watt range.

"What we're seeing in the market is extraordinary," Johnsen said.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, meanwhile, said the value of computing per watt "will increase over time" and not decrease.

"We are also, frankly, hounded relentlessly by every hyperscaler and by dozens of smaller companies to rent more of our compute," Musk said, adding that the AI sector will likely face a shortage in AI computing power

That's excellent news for CoreWeave and the other so-called neoclouds, which are in the business of selling AI computing.

Wall Street's bullish take on the sector and CoreWeave has been that neocloud providers can charge more for AI computing power as demand for AI compute accelerates.

Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes said in a research note these comments around AI cloud pricing is "insanely good" and that CoreWeave and hyperscalers "have even better pricing tailwinds" moving forward.

Reitzes added that SpaceX's proprietary ability to access and add power - one of the street's biggest AI concerns for 2027 -- is excellent news for Nvidia and Dell Technologies.

CoreWeave stock fell 1% to $61.40 on Wednesday after ending Tuesday up 1.7%.

The cloud computing company, which pioneered the neocloud sector, was at the center of the stock market panic last week after its corporate bonds sold off, signaling credit investor concerns about the company's mounting debt and future borrowing costs.

Shares cratered more than 25% last week but have risen 1.2% this week as of the closing bell on Tuesday.

Along with CoreWeave stock, fellow neocloud stock Nebius declined 0.6% to $170.51 . Iren rose 1% to $26.90 on Wednesday.

Many of the cloud computing names aren't in the clear yet, according to Piper Sandler analyst James Fish.

Fish lowered his CoreWeave stock price to $124 from $153 but maintained an Overweight rating on the stock. The analyst also cut his Nebius price target to $185 from $237 while keeping a Neutral rating on the shares.

Fish said in the research note the stocks will likely remain "in the penalty box" until free cash flows move more positively and drive better sentiment around return on invested capital. He added that stabilizing interest-rates or clarity around financing could also remove the downward pressure on the stocks.

"We would use the pullback to build positions slowly," Fish said.

 

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