Oil Prices Rise on Fears of Middle East Conflict Escalation

Dow Jones
14小时前
 
 

Oil prices rose Friday, closing out the week with solid gains as the market remains on edge about the possibility of the Middle East conflict escalating with renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and further attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure.

December Brent crude settled up 3.1% at $116.72 a barrel, its highest close since April 29 and up 6.2% on the week. West Texas Intermediate for December delivery rose 3.8% to $103.27 a barrel for a 4.3% weekly gain.

Iran has warned that renewed U.S. and Israeli strikes would trigger a wider response targeting airports, oil pipelines and other economic infrastructure across the Persian Gulf, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.

The warnings come as Washington deploys a third aircraft carrier strike group and additional Marines toward the Middle East, while moving some military personnel away from regional bases amid concerns over potential Iranian retaliation, according to the Journal.

"The overriding bullish influence remains the increasing tensions within the Persian Gulf region," trading advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note. The market's ability to shrug off recent improved flows through the Strait of Hormuz "has largely related to an increased geopolitical risk premium as threats to global oil supply in various regions of the globe are on the increase."

The U.S. military buildup is also challenging expectations of de-escalation after the November midterm elections. Analysts at MUFG said Friday that the developments cast doubt on their earlier view that the elections would be followed by an easing of tensions and a normalization of oil flows and prices.

Regional tensions also remained elevated following attacks by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militia on Saudi Arabia's Shaybah oil field and King Fahd International Airport in Dammam on Wednesday. Saudi Arabia's energy ministry said operations at Shaybah were unaffected despite casualties from falling debris.

The Saudi-led coalition separately said Friday that it intercepted and destroyed two Houthi drones launched toward the kingdom's southern region, according to the Saudi Press Agency.

The latest escalation is raising concerns over the sustainability of Middle East oil supplies despite recovering exports. Analysts at ING said Friday that prices are being supported more by the risk of renewed disruptions than by current supply conditions, with Gulf oil flows remaining resilient.

The bank said its previous forecast for Brent to average $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter now appears unattainable, as the prospect of renewed U.S.-Iran fighting threatens to keep a substantial geopolitical risk premium on prices.

Middle East oil shipments have nevertheless recovered above prewar levels. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative export routes averaged more than 24 million barrels a day in the week through Oct. 18, above the prewar level of 23.3 million barrels a day, according to Kpler.

However, flows through the Strait of Hormuz itself remain below prewar levels. The latest seven-day average stood at 12.65 million barrels a day, around 26% below the prewar baseline of 17.15 million barrels a day, according to Kpler.

 
 

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