Closely contested governor's races may affect how data centers are built out-and powered-around the U.S., investment banks are telling investors.

Bank of America singled out Texas's data-center dominance, calling it "the single most consequential midterm election for the utility and power markets in the 2026 cycle." Jefferies said it's watching the governor races in Texas, Georgia and Ohio, among others. "Nine of the top 15 data center states elect governors in November, with candidates in both parties backing stricter rules or moratoriums," Jefferies analysts wrote in a note to clients.

Texas has the largest exposure, with roughly 26% of planned nationwide data-center projects, according to Jefferies. That's nearly triple the amount of data-center capacity proposed in Virginia, the next closest state, which is home to "Data Center Alley."

The state's incumbent Republican governor, Greg Abbott, offered hyperscalers sizable tax incentives to build data centers in Texas. In September he temporarily halted air, water and environmental permits to the projects amid an outcry against the industrial developments. Democrat Gina Hinojosa is challenging Abbott by campaigning on a promise to enact an immediate moratorium. If she wins in an upset, 13.1 gigawatts of announced projects are immediately at risk, the bank projects. If Abbott wins, the bank predicts the projects will move full steam ahead.