Why the iPhone Duo Could Kick Off a 'New Decade' for Apple

Dow Jones
昨天

Soaring memory chip prices? That might be a problem for Apple through next year, but a China-based firm believes the recently launched iPhone Duo is about to create a "new decade" for Apple that will more than make up for current business pressures.

Apple stock rose 1.5% to $353.75 on Wednesday and was on pace to close at a record high. Shares, as of Tuesday, had risen around 1% in November as the stock has weathered the recent tumultuous stock market trading following the midterm elections.

Shares of the iPhone maker have performed quite well this year, advancing 30% as of Wednesday and were on pace for their best yearly performance since 2024, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Even with this performance, Apple stock is still a buy.

Analysts at China Renaissance, a prominent Chinese financial services firm, upgraded Apple stock to Buy from Hold and raised their price target to $425 from $280. That price target represented 22% upside from the closing price of $348.51 on Tuesday.

That $425 price target also represented 21% upside from the record closing price of $350.69 from Nov. 9.

The team led by Jack Zhou and Lemuel Lin said in the research note that their previous Hold rating was based on memory chip-driven margin pressure and slowing services growth. But the foldable iPhone Duo, launched in October, has changed the firm's calculous on Apple stock.

"We view Duo as a new growth platform with the potential to reshape the iPhone replacement cycle, "Zhou and Lin said.

"Its combination of a foldable display, multitasking and Siri AI creates new use cases -- the larger canvas and side-by-side app experience fit productivity, content consumption and AI-assisted workflows into a pocketable device, driving a compelling upgrade proposition across Apple's massive installed base," the analysts added.

The initial consumer response to Apple's first foldable phone has been a mix of excitement over its hardware performance and frustration with software growing pains and hardware durability issues; some customers have reported the inner screen of the phone can crease or break.

The firm, however, sees the iPhone Duo "creating a new decade" for Apple based around this belief that it will drive smartphone sales and upgrades. And this is more than enough to make up for the current memory price concerns.

The memory chip shortage brought on by robust demand from artificial-intelligence has sent prices surging. Apple recently projected that its fiscal 2027 first-quarter gross profit margin will decline sequentially by 1.4 percentage points to 45% to 46%, after excluding tariff refunds.

"We expect most of that decline to be driven by higher memory costs," Chief Financial Officer Kevan Parekh said Nov. 2. on a fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call.

This is certainly a concern and China Renaissance said that memory inflation and services headwinds "temper near-term earnings."

"Pricing actions and lower non-memory component costs should provide partial relief," the firm said.

But again it will be the iPhone Duo to the rescue with its support of "long-term upside," according to Zhou and Lin.

China Renaissance's bullish rating on Apple joins a chorus of optimistic voices on Wall Street. Of the 48 firms polled by FactSet, Apple stock has an average Overweight rating, the equivalent of Buy. The stock has just four Sell ratings and two Underweight ratings.

Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring is among those analysts who are bullish on Apple. He has an Overweight rating on the shares with a $350 price target.

Woodring, following Apple's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings, said Apple's slowing services growth and gross margin downside were negatives but that the company's free cash flow and reluctance to spend big on AI were likely to be rewarded.

"The market is more likely to reward stability and cash flow predictability as it questions the broader AI trade," Woodring said in a Nov. 3 research note.

Strong free cash flow and the iPhone Duo? A good 2026 might just turn into a great 2027 for Apple stock.

 

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