Did Microsoft back the slow horse in the artificial-intelligence race? The latest figures suggest OpenAI is trailing rival Anthropic on adjusted operating profitability, which could be a setback for its big investor.
OpenAI's adjusted operating losses for the third quarter came to $10.9 billion, even as revenue grew about 50% from the previous quarter, according to The Wall Street Journal, which cited numbers shared with investors.
Those figures suggest OpenAI is some way off catching up with Anthropic when it comes to adjusted operating profitability. Anthropic's adjusted operating profit margin was 15% in the third quarter, with a long-term goal of 35%, according to the presentation accompanying its filing for an initial public offering.
Of course it's hard to tell whether the two companies' figures are directly comparable -- efforts to contrast OpenAI and Anthropic have seemingly misled the market before. But it seems undeniable that Anthropic has made faster progress on getting into shape for the public market as it plans to launch its IPO next week, while OpenAI isn't expected to go public until next year.
That means Microsoft shareholders will have to wait to see whether the company's big bet on OpenAI is set to pay off. Microsoft owns a stake of about 24% in OpenAI. That would be valued at about $300 billion at OpenAI's last reported valuation of $1.25 trillion, although it is subject to potential dilution.
It's not that Microsoft has only bet on one horse. Microsoft has also agreed to invest up to $5 billion in Anthropic, with a planned $1 billion investment alongside the IPO disclosed in Anthropic's filings.
But Microsoft has a more significant overall relationship with OpenAI, which has committed to using Microsoft as its primary cloud-computing provider and spending $250 billion on its services. By comparison, Microsoft's cloud deals with Anthropic are worth up to $49.2 billion -- much lower than Anthropic's commitments with other companies such as SpaceX and Google.
Overall it would benefit Microsoft much more if OpenAI turns out to be the premier pure-play AI company on the market. It would boost the value of its stake and provide reassurance about its cloud growth.
Meanwhile, Anthropic is launching competing software tools with Microsoft's own products -- something which contributed to a 2.2% stock drop on Tuesday, although shares were rising 0.7% in Wednesday's premarket.
Things change pretty quickly in the AI race. Microsoft shareholders will hope OpenAI's next set of figures are more reassuring.