Stock Plummets in Sudden Afternoon Crash

Deep News
03/25

Shares of POP MART experienced a sharp decline in afternoon trading. As of the latest update, the stock price had fallen over 20%, wiping out more than HK$58 billion in market value in a single day.

The company released its full-year financial results at midday. Revenue for 2025 surged 185% year-over-year to RMB 37.12 billion, slightly below market expectations of RMB 38 billion. Net profit grew 309% to RMB 12.8 billion, slightly exceeding the anticipated RMB 12.6 billion. Adjusted net profit was RMB 13.08 billion, an increase of 284.5%.

Despite the strong earnings report, the stock recorded its largest intraday drop since April 2025. Market observers noted that the full-year revenue growth remained heavily reliant on sales of the LABUBU character, disappointing investors who had hoped for broader growth from other intellectual properties.

An analyst from DZT Research commented, "Dependence on LABUBU for sales was even greater in the second half than in the first half."

Financial results showed that the LABUBU family generated revenue of RMB 14.16 billion, achieving triple-digit growth across all four global regions and surpassing the market forecast of RMB 12.5 billion. This character contributed approximately 40% of total revenue, up from 23% in 2024.

While the prominently promoted Skullpanda performed well, with revenue reaching RMB 3.5 billion and exceeding expectations, other popular IPs such as Crybaby and Molly fell short. Revenue from Molly, an early flagship IP, was only RMB 2.9 billion, significantly below the market expectation of RMB 4.6 billion, highlighting the challenge of sustaining growth for older characters.

Analysts pointed out that POP MART's ability to maintain growth this year will depend on expansion into overseas markets—particularly in Asia-Pacific and North America—diversification beyond LABUBU, and the continuous launch of new products.

Previously, Morgan Stanley had predicted that POP MART's share price would remain volatile following the March 25 earnings release, citing highly divergent market views. Analysts noted significant price fluctuations over the past two and a half months without substantial changes in profit expectations from bulls or bears. Bullish investors project 2026 profits between RMB 16.5 billion and RMB 17 billion, while bears anticipate weak growth and a potential decline starting in the second half of 2026. Southbound capital remains a primary source of bullish positions, while foreign hedge funds are the main source of bearish sentiment.

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