Analysts at Morgan Stanley have released a research report concerning Henderson Land (00012). The report anticipates that the company will announce its interim results for the first half of 2026 in late August.

Supported by the booking of profits from high-margin projects such as The Legacy at the Mayfair Terrace redevelopment in Mid-Levels West, along with new rental contributions from the super-grade office tower The Henderson in Central, the bank forecasts that Henderson Land's underlying profit will increase by 27% year-on-year.

Furthermore, the firm expects the interim dividend per share to be maintained at HK$0.50, with a full-year dividend per share of HK$1.30, implying a dividend yield of 4.8%.

Morgan Stanley has reiterated its "Overweight" rating on Henderson Land, with an unchanged target price of HK$31.

The report notes that progress on the government's acquisition of the company's agricultural land could materialize in the second half of 2026. This development may result in earnings per share significantly exceeding the dividend per share, with the surplus cash potentially being used for deleveraging.

Morgan Stanley expresses confidence that Henderson Land's share price will rise relative to the broader market over the next 60 days, estimating the probability of this scenario occurring at over 80%.