According to Woofun AI, Frank Cappelleri, founder and president of chart research firm CappThesis, has concluded that Bitcoin's current movement is not an ordinary rebound but rather the early phase of a larger rally, with its core logic built on the convergence of three key market signals.

The validity of the technical breakout is the primary basis. In an analysis written for CNBC Pro on October 1, Cappelleri noted that Bitcoin has reproduced a breakout pattern that traders previously regarded as a bullish omen, a phenomenon that directly drove a gain of roughly 20% in August. It is worth noting that between late 2025 and early 2026, the market saw three similar patterns that failed to form effective breakouts, which is seen as a typical feature of a downtrend; by contrast, a healthy uptrend continues to climb after achieving a breakout, and the realization of this pattern this time marks a fundamental improvement in market structure.

Cyclical patterns and long-term trends provide further support. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that Bitcoin's weekly chart this year closely resembles that of 2022 to 2023, when the weekly average price line shifted from capping gains to cushioning declines, becoming a key marker of the market's transition from decline to advance. Cappelleri believes the upward trend in the S&P 500 Index in the fourth quarter is expected to extend into the crypto market. From a longer-term perspective, Bitcoin's rebound began from an upward trend line that can be traced back to 2017, with the previous three approaches to that line all triggering rebounds within months; combined with August's rare gain accompanied by a recovery in exchange trading volume, this further verifies the solidity of bottom support.

However, macro headwinds cannot be ignored. Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME.US) FedWatch shows that as of September 28, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October was as high as 68.1%. BeInCrypto analysis points out that concerns over rising interest rates are the main reason for the recent market decline. Whether Bitcoin can maintain its breakout momentum under rate hike pressure will determine whether this is a trend shift or a short-lived rebound that will eventually fade.