Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, including weekend clashes and an Iranian attack on a tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, provided some safe-haven support for gold prices on June 29th.

However, the latest news indicates both sides will hold technical talks in Doha on Tuesday, leading to a rapid unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium.

Capital currently shows a greater preference for seeking safety in the US dollar and Treasury bonds rather than gold.

The most critical event this week is the Non-Farm Payrolls report, which will be released on Thursday instead of Friday due to the US Independence Day holiday.

This data will significantly influence market expectations for future interest rate hikes and requires close attention.

Monday's Market Outlook

With a light economic data calendar for Monday, June 29th, the focus will be on sporadic comments from Federal Reserve officials and the movement of the US dollar.

During the Asian and European sessions, prices are likely to fluctuate between the 4045 and 40940 levels.

Avoid chasing rallies or selling into declines; wait for prices to reach planned zones before taking action.

Given the upcoming NFP report and central bank forum, volatility is expected to increase from Wednesday onward.

It is advisable to avoid holding large overnight positions.

US-Iran Developments

Both the US and Iran have agreed to halt mutual attacks and will meet in Doha, Qatar, this Tuesday to discuss disputes concerning the Strait of Hormuz.

Accusations from both sides regarding violations of a memorandum of understanding have heightened geopolitical risks once again.

This situation is likely to increase volatility in the precious metals market, putting short-term pressure on gold and increasing the probability of a consolidative price pattern.

Technical Analysis Perspective

From a technical standpoint, when gold broke below the 4000 level last week, the hourly chart showed signs of being oversold.

This was followed by a technical rebound, although its scope and momentum remained weak.

In the short term, there is potential for a further extension at the start of the week.

If the upward move extends, watch for a test near the 4100 level, with particular focus on the 4140-4150 zone.

This area represents the 10-day moving average resistance and the maximum allowable rebound pressure on the hourly chart.

On the downside for the early week, monitor the 4020-4000 support zone.

Overall Strategy

In summary, the current gold price environment is characterized by an unchanged medium-term bearish trend with a short-term oversold consolidation.

Significant resistance lies between 4080 and 4100, while buying interest is expected to provide support between 4000 and 4030.

The primary strategy involves selling into rallies upon encountering resistance.

Light, quick long positions can be considered near lower support levels for fast trades.

Strict position control is essential while awaiting direction from this week's NFP data.

As the new week begins, focus on re-establishing market rhythm rather than rushing to recoup losses.

Preserving capital is paramount, as opportunities will always arise.

Intraday Trading Recommendations

Gold: Operate within a 4100-4030 range. Set a 10-point stop loss and target a 50-60 point profit.

Key Economic Data and Events for Monday, June 29th, 2026

TBD: European Central Bank Central Banking Forum.

22:30: US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for June.

Next Day 00:30: Speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.