Zheshang Securities reiterated its "Buy" rating on POP MART (09992), forecasting net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB13.0/17.9/22.9 billion for 2025-2027. Adjusted net profits are projected at RMB14.0/19.2/24.0 billion, representing year-on-year growth of +312%/+37%/+25%, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20x/15x/12x.
The company reported strong Q3 2025 results, with total revenue surging 245-250% YoY, exceeding expectations again. Domestic revenue (including Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) rose 185-190% YoY, while overseas revenue jumped 365-370% YoY. In China, offline channel revenue grew 130-135% YoY, and online revenue soared 300-305% YoY.
Secondary market prices for LABUBU remained stable over the past 20 days, with hidden/trending regular editions still commanding premiums. The popularity of STAR TOY is rising, with MINI plush toys seeing premiums of 42-503% (Qianzhan), and first/second/third-generation plush sets trading at 124%/94%/84% premiums. Collaborations like Xiao Ye X Stefanie Sun figurines and SPX Wednesday plush products continue to expand IP reach. Plush products are in an IP expansion phase, with Halloween-themed HACIPUPU/DIMOO/BabyMolly/CRYBABY vinyl plush releases. The BJD category is poised for accelerated growth, with MOLLYX Zootopia 1/12 action figures launching on October 23 and Zsiga action figures maintaining a 29% premium.
Overseas growth remains robust, with Q3 Asia-Pacific revenue up 170-175% YoY, Americas revenue skyrocketing 1,265-1,270% YoY, and Europe/other regions climbing 735-740% YoY. The U.S. remains in rapid store expansion mode, with SPX Wednesday New York pop-up products gaining traction. Apple CEO Tim Cook attended LABUBU's 10th-anniversary exhibition on October 13, further elevating brand value. Market focus is on Q4 performance during Halloween, Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Christmas seasons.
Looking ahead, POP MART's Q4 product launches are highly anticipated. Medium-term, the company remains in a strong growth phase driven by IP expansion, category diversification, and overseas penetration, with earnings consistently surpassing expectations. Long-term, its moat continues to deepen through sustainable IP creation and operational mechanisms, reinforcing its platform value.