Fund Inflows Slow Slightly, Yet Foreign Investment Continues to Flow In|Guotai Haitong Investor Micro Behavior Insight Manual October Issue 2

Deep News
2025/10/20

Core Insights: This period has seen a decrease in market transaction activity, a marginal increase in funding for equity mutual funds, and a slowdown in financing inflows, while foreign capital continues to increase its positions in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. Summary ▶ Market Pricing Status: This period has observed a decline in transaction heat. 1) Market sentiment (decreasing): The trading turnover rate has rebounded, but the average daily trading volume for all A-shares has decreased to 2.2 trillion, with the average number of daily limit-up stocks rising to 56.4; the maximum consecutive limit-up count is 4, and the sealing rate has dropped to 66.2%. The number of stocks appearing on the leaderboard has decreased to 59; 2) Profit-making Effect (decreasing): The proportion of stocks rising this period has dropped to 20.3%, with the weekly median return for all A-shares falling to -3.4%; 3) Transaction Concentration (decreasing): Industry transaction concentration has declined, with 6 industries having turnover rates in the top historical percentile of over 90%, among which non-ferrous metals and automobiles have turnover rates exceeding 95%. ▶ A-share Fund Flow: A marginal increase in equity fund issuance, with a slowdown in financing inflows. 1) Public Funds: The new issuance scale of equity funds has increased to 8.55 billion, with various public funds increasing their stock holdings compared to the previous period; 2) Private Funds: The private fund confidence index has slightly decreased in October, with positions continuing to approach the year's highest (as of 09/19); 3) Foreign Capital: A net inflow of $130 million (as of 10/15), with northbound trading's historical engagement ratio rising to 37.8%; 4) Industrial Capital: This period's IPO fundraising reached 970 million, with a private placement scale of 8.02 billion (as of 10/17), and restricted stock unlocks amounting to 71.71 billion; 5) ETF: Passive fund net inflows have slightly decreased to 24.34 billion but remain at a high level, with the proportion of passive trading rising to 7.0%; the premium/discount rate for stock ETFs continues to rise; 6) Financing: This period's net purchase reached 11.48 billion, with the transaction amount proportion declining to 11.2%; 7) Retail Investors: Alternative indicators suggest a marginal increase in retail investor activity this period. ▶ A-share Industry Allocation: Preference for technology and cyclical sectors, with both domestic and foreign capital increasing allocations in electronics and non-ferrous metals. 1) Foreign Capital: (as of 10/15) Net inflows are leading in electronics (+7.85 billion) and non-ferrous metals (+7.04 billion), while banks (-2.26 billion) and food & beverage (-1.85 billion) have seen outflows; 2) Financing: (as of 10/16) The largest net inflows were in non-ferrous metals (+7.62 billion) and power equipment (+2.69 billion), while communications saw a net outflow of -4.56 billion; 3) ETFs: Flows of passive funds are concentrated in the primary sector, with banks (+8.3 billion) and non-ferrous metals (+7.56 billion) being the top inflows; in second-tier industries, securities and semiconductors saw the largest inflows, while communications (-2.04 billion) and basic chemicals (-780 million) had the largest outflows. The top growing ETFs this period include Bank ETF and Rare Earth ETF, while the 0-3 Year Bond ETF and Gold ETF also recorded significant net purchases; however, the ChiNext ETF and CSI 300 ETF experienced net redemptions, with the ChiNext and CSI Short-term Bond ETF showing net sales; 4) Leading sectors in the leaderboard include machinery, electronics, and basic chemicals. ▶ Hong Kong and Global Capital Flow: Elevated inflows from the southbound capital, with foreign capital marginally entering non-US developed markets. This period saw the Hang Seng Index decline by 4.0%, with major global markets showing mixed results; the South Korean KOSPI rose by 3.8%. Capital Dimension: 1) Southbound capital net purchases rose to 45.09 billion for the week, reaching the 94th percentile since 2022 (MA5); 2) For this period (as of 10/15), foreign capital inflows into the Hong Kong market reached $210 million. For this period (as of 10/15), net flows of active/passive funds in developed markets are -5.93 billion and 20.18 billion USD, while emerging markets saw net flows of -720 million and 14.52 billion USD. From the perspective of foreign capital alone, there has been marginal inflows into non-US developed markets, with Japan (+780 million) and the UK (+550 million) leading the inflows, while the US (-2.18 billion) switched to an outflow position. Considering overall global flows including domestic capital, China and the US ranked highest in inflows, while the UK and India faced outflows. Chinese and North American funds saw significant net subscriptions, with US tech and healthcare funds leading in net subscriptions. ▶ Risk Warning: There may be biases in data statistical methodologies; measurement errors; and risks from data acquired through third-party institutions.

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