Steady growth in production and supply, continued expansion in market sales, and sustained resilience in foreign trade... The economic performance data for the first four months of the year, released on May 18, show that from January to April, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend, with high-quality development advancing steadily. Against the backdrop of a complex and challenging international environment, these achievements once again demonstrate the strong resilience of the Chinese economy.
Among the series of data, fluctuations in demand-side indicators such as consumption and investment have drawn attention. For example, in April, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.2% year-on-year but fell by 0.48% month-on-month. Similarly, from January to April, national fixed-asset investment decreased by 1.6% year-on-year. How should these fluctuations be viewed dialectically?
On the one hand, looking beyond individual segments to the overall picture, the "stable" tone of the Chinese economy remains unchanged. In the first four months, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size and the service industry production index grew by 5.6% and 4.9% year-on-year, respectively. The value-added of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increased by 8.7% and 12.6% year-on-year, respectively, while total goods imports and exports rose by 14.9%, and service retail sales grew by 5.6%. These figures indicate that new quality productive forces are thriving, and industrial upgrading is progressing steadily. At the same time, the urban surveyed unemployment rate remained stable, energy supply increased steadily, and basic livelihoods and security development were well safeguarded.
Overall, despite short-term fluctuations in some demand-side indicators, the Chinese economy continues to exhibit a positive trend of steady and high-quality development. On the other hand, looking beyond the short term to the long term, the fundamentals of vast demand potential remain unchanged. Any economy may experience short-term fluctuations due to various factors, but its fundamental trajectory remains unaffected.
In terms of consumption, although total retail sales of consumer goods experienced a month-on-month decline in April, cumulative data from January to April still achieved a 1.9% year-on-year growth. Currently, China's household consumption is transitioning from a focus on goods to a balanced emphasis on both goods and services. Preliminary estimates show that from January to April, total retail sales of consumer goods and services increased by 3.2% year-on-year, maintaining overall stability compared to the first quarter.
Today, with a per capita GDP exceeding $13,000, China is in a stage of rapid consumption structure upgrading. Its advantages and characteristics, such as a vast market capacity, multiple tiers, and extensive depth, are becoming increasingly evident. Moving forward, by implementing measures to boost consumption, expanding the supply of high-quality goods and services, and deepening reforms, consumption potential will be gradually unleashed.
In terms of investment, after turning positive in the first quarter, investment growth showed a year-on-year decline in the first four months, which is a normal fluctuation between months. Excluding real estate development investment, national fixed-asset investment still achieved a 1.3% growth in the first four months. Notably, investment in high-tech industries increased by 6.1% year-on-year, reflecting the accelerated growth of new drivers. The optimization of the investment structure has laid a foundation for medium- to long-term economic development.
As the world's second-largest economy, China's per capita infrastructure capital stock is currently only 20%–30% of that of developed countries, indicating significant investment potential in addressing shortcomings, strengthening weak areas, and optimizing structures. By promoting the launch of major projects during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, advancing infrastructure construction, and stimulating private investment, effective investment will continue to materialize.
Overall, since the beginning of this year, domestic demand has generally improved under the influence of policies such as "dual priorities" and "dual new initiatives." However, it is also important to recognize that the foundation for stable and positive economic performance still needs to be consolidated, and efforts are required to address the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand.
To this end, it is essential to strengthen confidence and implement economic work with greater intensity and more practical measures. In particular, by expanding the supply of high-quality goods and services, deepening efforts to enhance the capacity and quality of the service industry, and strengthening the planning and construction of the "six networks," domestic demand potential can be further tapped, continuously enhancing the internal driving force of the Chinese economy.
With vitality on the production side and prosperity on the demand side, the Chinese economy will continue to reach new heights in terms of both quantity and quality.