AI music is expected to have a limited impact on market size in the short term but is accelerating industry transformation, according to a research report from Founder Securities. Platforms with strong distribution capabilities, algorithmic advantages, and ecosystem expansion potential, such as Spotify (SPOT.US) and TME-SW (01698), are well-positioned to gain an early advantage in this reshaping. It is recommended to monitor Spotify, TME-SW, and NETEASE MUSIC (09899). The key viewpoints from Founder Securities are as follows:

AI music is gradually reshaping the music industry and market landscape from both content production and distribution perspectives. The global recorded music market continues to operate steadily (with a 6.4% year-on-year revenue growth projected for 2025), and AI has not yet negatively impacted overall market size. However, it has significantly disrupted internal creative order, copyright value distribution, and platform competition dynamics.

Existing music platforms, including Spotify, TME-SW, and NETEASE MUSIC, are first acting as distribution channels for AI-generated music. The massive supply of AI content can dilute the playback share of top copyright holders, thereby strengthening platforms' bargaining power in distribution. Secondly, platforms are actively deploying AI creation tools. For instance, the launch of an "AI Music Creation Lab" by Qishui Music has prompted Tencent and NetEase to follow suit, integrating AI music as a new creative force.

Looking ahead, AI music is expected to give rise to new content formats, such as immersive interactive music experiences, new distribution platforms similar to short drama advertising models, and new segments within the industry chain, like specialized AI music promotion platforms. Drawing lessons from historical precedents, such as the evolution from photography to painting and from PC games to web and mobile games, the value chain distribution in the music industry may further evolve from the current "channel sharing" model. The interest structure among platforms, copyright holders, and AI creators is likely to be reshaped.

Risk warnings include uncertainty in AI policy regulation, unclear value distribution within the industry chain, and potential disruption to the industry landscape from emerging competitors, such as the rise of Qishui Music.