Guojin Securities released a research report forecasting that CIDI-NEW (03881) will achieve operating revenues of RMB 1.68 billion, RMB 3.34 billion, and RMB 5.15 billion in 2026, 2027, and 2028, representing year-on-year growth of 90.03%, 98.86%, and 53.97%, respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -RMB 74 million, RMB 381 million, and RMB 782 million for the same periods. Considering the current domestic market penetration rate in the industry is less than 10% and the overseas market is still in the initial adoption phase, a PS valuation method was applied. The firm was assigned a 12X PS multiple for 2026, corresponding to a target price of HK$53.09. This marks the initiation of coverage with a "Buy" rating. The key points from Guojin Securities are as follows:
The company started with autonomous driving and vehicle-infrastructure cooperative products for commercial vehicles and has now grown into a leading domestic supplier of unmanned mining trucks. Founded in 2017, the company initially focused on core autonomous driving technology R&D and developed products for segments like trunk logistics and V2X. From 2019, it gradually concentrated on the unmanned mining truck segment. The successful implementation of the Jurong Taiwan Cement project in 2022 was a turning point for the company's commercialization in this niche. Benefiting from the demonstration effect of this benchmark project, the company entered a period of concentrated order growth starting in 2023. It has now become a leading domestic supplier of unmanned mining trucks.
The company officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 19, 2025, with a global offering of 5.408 million H shares at an issue price of HK$263 per share (the company implemented a share split on March 2, 2026, splitting 1 share into 10 shares). The total funds raised amounted to approximately HK$1.422 billion.
Unmanned mining trucks represent a high-quality L4 segment with a strong safety imperative. Mining operations often involve high risks such as collapses, explosions, and toxic gas leaks. Against the backdrop of this safety imperative, mine safety regulatory authorities encourage intelligent mine development through a series of policies including production capacity increase incentives, subsidies, and tax credits. According to estimates based on Guanyan Tianxia data, annual sales of mining trucks in China are approximately 25,000 units. Benefiting from policy support, unmanned mining trucks have now moved past the market introduction phase. In 2025, the penetration rate of unmanned mining trucks reached 12% based on new sales volume. The year 2026 is positioned in a phase of rapid scaling growth from a penetration rate exceeding 10% upwards.
Calculating from the perspective of replacing human driver working hours, the potential market space for unmanned mining trucks equals the human labor cost in the national mine transportation segment. The report estimates the domestic potential market space for unmanned mining trucks to be between RMB 22 billion and RMB 66 billion. With higher overseas labor costs, the potential overseas market space is more than double that of the domestic market.
As a leading enterprise in the unmanned mining truck industry, the company is well-positioned to fully benefit from the industry's high growth momentum. 1) Technology: It integrates scenario-specific know-how to build technical barriers. This translates into leading industry performance in transport efficiency and mixed-fleet operation capability. 2) Clients: Validated by benchmark projects, the company has established a certain flywheel effect. The unmanned mining truck business is typically a to-large-B model, where mine owner decisions heavily rely on the endorsement of past case studies. 3) Leading Overseas Expansion: The company's path for overseas expansion, following major Chinese mining enterprises, is clear. Leveraging the overseas mine resources of partners like Taiwan Cement and China National Materials Group for technology deployment helps the company establish benchmark project effects overseas and rapidly access the international market.
Risks include intensifying industry competition, overseas expansion progress falling short of expectations, and risks associated with the lifting of share sale restrictions.