Gold and Oil Strategy: Gold Reacts to Cooler CPI, Oil's Upward Risks Persist

Deep News
06/11

Spot Gold:

On June 11th, during the Asian trading session, spot gold (XAU/USD) staged a modest recovery from its recent lows, with prices climbing back to around $4118 per ounce and temporarily holding above the low point established earlier, which was the lowest since November 2025. However, the rebound in gold appears to be driven more by short covering, as the overall market environment remains dominated by a strong US dollar and expectations of sustained high interest rates, which continue to cap further gains for the precious metal.

Technical Perspective

Gold has extended its intraday decline, breaking below the $4100 support level, which was our previously analyzed final target. Although the Relative Strength Index remains deeply oversold, this move reflects a weak response to rebound attempts and confirms the strength of the downtrend. With gold trading below the EMA50, which acts as dynamic resistance and limits recovery, downside pressure is increasing. The price is also moving along a descending trendline, reinforcing the bearish structure and supporting the continuation of the prevailing downtrend. For the evening session, key resistance levels to watch are at $4117 and $4185, while support levels are at $4051 and $4024.

Evening Trading Recommendations for Gold

Consider a long position on a pullback to the $4065/4070 area and a short position on a rebound to the $4175/4185 area. Set a stop-loss of 10 dollars for each trade, targeting profits of 20 to 50 dollars.

WTI Crude Oil:

During Thursday's Asian session, the international crude oil market continued its strong performance, with US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices rising for a second consecutive trading day, holding around $91.70 per barrel. The market is primarily influenced by escalating tensions in the Middle East, with investors concerned that the ongoing regional conflict could expand, potentially threatening global oil transportation and supply security, thereby pushing risk premiums higher.

Technical Analysis

Crude oil has extended its gains in recent intraday trading and moved above the EMA50, a positive technical signal reflecting improved buying momentum and increasing the chances for further near-term recovery. Despite these positive signs, oil currently faces a key challenge from the short-term descending trendline resistance, which may limit further upside. Concurrently, the Relative Strength Index has reached overbought levels, suggesting the bullish momentum may be waning and increasing the risk of a potential pullback. For the evening session, key resistance levels to monitor are at $92.0 and $93.5, while support levels are at $88.5 and $87.3.

Evening Trading Recommendations for Crude Oil

Personal suggestion: Consider a long position on a pullback to the $88.0/88.7 area and a short position on a rebound to the $91.2/91.8 area. Set a stop-loss of 1.0 point for each trade, targeting profits of 3.0 points per barrel.

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