This week, the delayed U.S. September nonfarm payrolls report will finally be released, while NVIDIA's earnings take center stage.

**Last Week’s Market Recap** The positive news of the U.S. government reopening failed to overshadow expectations that the Fed might pause rate cuts in December. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices retreated for a second consecutive week, while the Dow Jones hit a new all-time high midweek before closing slightly higher. Major European and Asia-Pacific stock markets generally ended the week in positive territory.

Gold briefly surged to $4,245 but pared gains to close at $4,083. Silver rose 4.6% weekly but is forming a potential double-top pattern near its historical high of $50.40.

WTI crude oil fell for a second straight week, closing below $60, as both OPEC and the IEA forecast an oil supply surplus by 2026.

In currency markets, USD/JPY remained flat at 154.53, while other major currencies rebounded, with the Swiss franc leading gains. The U.S. and Switzerland reached a trade framework agreement, reducing U.S. import tariffs on Swiss goods from 39% to 15% (matching EU levels), with Switzerland pledging $200 billion in U.S. investments by 2028.

**This Week’s Outlook** - **Fed Minutes & December Rate Cut Odds Dip Below 50%** Amid rising inflation concerns and Republican election losses, former President Trump announced tariff reductions on select imports like beef and coffee, signaling potential further adjustments.

Kansas City Fed President Schmid emphasized his inflation worries extend beyond tariffs, hinting at opposition to a December rate cut. With multiple Fed officials expressing similar concerns, market-implied odds of a December cut fell to 40%, pushing the next expected cut to March. U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply last week, supporting the dollar near 99.

The implied rate curve has turned more hawkish compared to a month ago. Further declines in December rate-cut odds could bolster the dollar while pressuring gold and U.S. stocks. Wednesday’s Fed minutes may reveal internal divisions on December policy.

- **U.S. September Nonfarm Payrolls — Thursday, 21:30** The delayed report, originally due October 3, is now set for November 20. Expectations are for 50K new jobs (vs. prior 22K), with unemployment steady at 4.3%.

A weak report could revive rate-cut bets, but its impact may fade quickly as outdated data. The November report (due December 5) will be decisive for policy outlook.

- **NVIDIA Q3 Earnings — Wednesday, After U.S. Close** NVIDIA’s stock has risen "only" 37% this year, lagging peers, but its $5 trillion market cap and superior margins justify its 30x forward P/E—below Broadcom and AMD. Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $220.

For this quarter, revenue is expected at $548 (up 53.8% YoY). As an AI and market bellwether, NVIDIA’s guidance will sway sentiment, though post-earnings rallies face higher hurdles. China’s business and AI demand are key focal points.

Other earnings highlights include Pinduoduo, Home Depot (Tuesday), and Walmart (Friday).

- **UK October CPI — Wednesday, 15:00** Headline CPI is forecast to ease to 3.6% (from 3.8%), with core CPI at 3.4% (from 3.5%). Cooling inflation could fuel BoE rate-cut expectations (currently 75% priced for December 18), weighing on GBP.

Sterling may remain under 1.3200 ahead of the UK fiscal budget on November 26.

**XAUUSD (Gold) 4-Hour Chart** Gold attempted to recover Friday’s losses early Monday, but 4110 acts as near-term resistance, followed by 4139. A breakout could extend last week’s rebound toward record highs.

However, fading rate-cut bets and dollar strength pose hurdles. Support lies at 4070/80; a break below the late-August trendline would confirm a double-top (4381/4245), risking a retest of 4000.

With nonfarm payrolls due, gold’s weekly implied volatility rose to 26% (from 19%), suggesting a likely range of 3933.41–4233.71.

**USDJPY 1-Hour Chart** USD/JPY is rebounding from Friday’s oversold levels, targeting 154.80–155, then 155.80. However, intervention risks near these levels may cap gains, sustaining range-bound trading. A drop below 154.16 could trigger a correction.

*Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Trading involves risks, including potential loss of capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.*