Strong UK employment data would confirm that the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate adjustments are nearing completion, with enhanced economic resilience and signs of rising inflation reducing the likelihood of further easing. This would help bolster the pound and provide support for GBP/JPY.

However, uncertainty surrounding the upcoming autumn budget announcement in November may dampen bulls' willingness to add positions.

HSBC foreign exchange strategist Emily Clarke stated: "If employment data exceeds expectations, GBP/JPY may rebound to around 203.50 in the short term, but fiscal risks could limit further upside."

Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato issued warnings about rapid volatility in foreign exchange markets, sparking speculation about possible intervention and enhancing the yen's position as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, renewed trade tensions between the US and Asian countries have also increased safe-haven flows into the yen.

Nevertheless, due to increased domestic political uncertainty in Japan (dissolution of the LDP-Komeito coalition, with new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi still requiring support from other parties for her policies), markets widely believe that the Bank of Japan's prospects for rate hikes in the near term are limited, constraining further yen appreciation.

Nomura strategist Hiroshi Yamamoto noted: "The yen benefits from safe-haven flows, but political uncertainty and expectations of delayed BoJ policy make it difficult for rapid appreciation."

From a daily chart structure perspective, GBP/JPY has declined from its July 2024 high of 205.30, with prices currently maintaining around the 202 support zone. The 20-day and 50-day moving averages still maintain an upward arrangement, and while MACD momentum bars have converged somewhat, the overall bullish structure remains intact.

The RSI indicator is around 52, indicating room for short-term adjustment. If prices break below the initial support at 201.50, the short-term pullback could extend to 200.80 or even the psychological level of 200.00. Conversely, if GBP is boosted by employment data and breaks through 203.50 resistance, it could potentially return to the 204.50-205.00 range.

Market Outlook: Short-term pressure on GBP/JPY mainly stems from the yen's safe-haven attributes and market anticipation of UK employment data release. If UK employment data proves strong, short-term bulls may seize the opportunity to rebound, but yen policy and political uncertainty continue to constrain upward momentum.

Overall, GBP/JPY remains within a medium-term upward channel, with focus on fluctuations within the 201.50-203.50 range.