Markets surged overnight!

Led by technology stocks, the Nasdaq 100 index closed up 2.3% on Monday, reversing its decline from the previous Friday. Additionally, the S&P 500 rose 1.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6%, setting another new record high.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 3.8%, rebounding from its worst weekly performance since April 2025 recorded the previous week.

Looking at individual stocks, most major tech companies advanced. NVIDIA rose 1.27%, Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) gained 4.96%, Apple Inc. fell 0.72%, Microsoft Corporation declined 1.18%, SpaceX surged 7.15%, Broadcom Inc. increased 2.04%, Tesla, Inc. jumped 8.46%, and Meta Platforms, Inc. climbed 2.24%.

José Torres, a senior economist at Interactive Brokers, noted, "Risk appetite has recovered at the start of this holiday-shortened trading week as investors downplay concerns over AI spending and increase their holdings in the 'Magnificent Seven' U.S. tech stocks."

However, hedge funds are offloading U.S. technology stocks at a record pace. According to data from Goldman Sachs Prime Brokerage, for the week ending June 25th, hedge funds' net selling of the U.S. technology sector reached its highest level in over a decade. The data shows that net selling by hedge funds in the U.S. Information Technology sector hit an absolute historical high, marking one of the most extreme selling records since 2017. Within this, the semiconductor sub-sector experienced net selling for eight consecutive trading days, and the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants have seen net selling for five straight weeks.

Tony Pasquariello, head of Goldman Sachs' hedge fund business, warned that a debate over the sustainability of AI capital expenditure is already playing out in the markets. A core group of hyperscale technology stocks has fallen 18% so far in June, marking the worst monthly performance for this sector since Meta's IPO. The market is sending a clear signal through price action: those 'paying the bill' with massive investments in AI capital expenditure may have gone too far.

U.S. Supreme Court Rules for Fed Governor Cook to Remain

On the local date of June 29th, it was learned that the U.S. Supreme Court rejected a request from former President Trump to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, allowing her to remain in her position. Cook subsequently stated that the Supreme Court's ruling affirms the independence of the central bank.

Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase, commented that for new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, this ruling is "broadly positive because Trump can no longer remove Warsh from his post."

Iran Issues Statements Regarding the Strait of Hormuz

According to reports, following a memorandum of understanding reached between the U.S. and Iran earlier this month, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has gradually resumed. However, recent military friction has arisen between the two sides over navigation issues in the strait. There are now reports that the U.S. and Iran have agreed to halt mutual attacks.

On the 29th, Iranian officials made statements concerning the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani emphasized in an interview that all vessels must pass through the Strait of Hormuz according to the "Iranian route"; otherwise, Iran will take responsive measures against relevant ships.

In the interview, Bagheri Kani stated that Iranian and Omani delegations had discussed future management and related topics of the strait during the first joint working group meeting on the Strait of Hormuz held earlier that day. Iran is willing to negotiate with Oman on a "new arrangement" for the strait but opposes establishing any route other than the "Iranian route" for passage. Iran has clearly communicated this position to the Omani side. If Oman is "unwilling to participate in the new arrangement," Iran will decide on the management method of the Strait of Hormuz unilaterally.

According to Iranian sources on the 29th, an increasing number of vessels have recently chosen to transit via the route south of Larak Island in the northern part of the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy has issued warnings, stating that routes other than those designated by Iran pose security risks.

On the 29th, the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated in a declaration that, according to the Iran-U.S. memorandum of understanding, mine clearance work in the Strait of Hormuz will be carried out by Iran alone, and Iran will not cooperate with any other country on this matter.

Oman Does Not Support Charging Transit Fees for the Strait of Hormuz

According to reports, the Omani Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the 29th, saying that Omani and Iranian delegations held their first meeting in Muscat, the capital of Oman, that day to exchange views on "the future management of the Strait of Hormuz and related topics." The statement said the two sides discussed ways to enhance coordination on matters related to the Strait of Hormuz based on safeguarding their common interests and sovereignty and reaffirmed their commitment to international law. They also explored a cooperation framework in the fields of navigation and maritime services.

On the 29th, the Omani Foreign Ministry released content from a recent interview with Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi. In the interview, Al Busaidi said Oman does not support charging transit fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz but did not rule out the possibility of exploring mechanisms related to maritime services. Al Busaidi stated that issues such as enhancing navigation safety, improving emergency response capabilities for maritime accidents, and preventing marine pollution could be discussed, drawing on practices from other straits. He said such arrangements would be formulated in consultation with countries and shipping companies using the Strait of Hormuz routes, aiming to improve maritime services and ensure navigation safety, not to impose new burdens on global trade.

Diverging Trends in Domestic and International Gold and Silver Prices

On June 29th, the precious metals sector in the domestic futures market collectively moved higher.

Regarding this, Liu Shiyao, an analyst at ZJTF Futures, believes the recent pullback in the U.S. dollar index reflects that market expectations for the Federal Reserve's tightening path have been largely priced in. Simultaneously, long dollar positions and bullish sentiment are at elevated levels, leaving limited room for further fund allocation. Against this backdrop, the dollar's periodic correction has relieved pressure on precious metal prices.

Yan Mengyuan, an analyst at Zheshang Futures, believes that in the short term, negative impacts from interest rate hike concerns and tightening liquidity will persist. It is expected that silver prices will continue to seek support downward in the near term. From a medium to long-term perspective, considering the low probability of a Fed rate hike within the year, coupled with currently low deliverable inventory levels and an overall tight supply-demand balance projected for 2026, silver prices still possess some underlying support. If the logic of future interest rate cuts returns as the market's main theme, it could still drive silver prices to stabilize and recover.

In contrast to the collective rise in the domestic market, international gold and silver prices both weakened on that day. However, in post-market trading on June 30th, London gold and London silver first fluctuated lower before suddenly rallying. At the time of writing, they were up 0.1% and 0.43%, respectively.

Yan Mengyuan attributes this divergence mainly to two factors: First, the continued strengthening of the Chinese yuan, which has broken through the 6.8 level against the U.S. dollar. This exchange rate factor naturally provides a premium support for domestic silver prices compared to foreign prices. Second, due to misaligned trading hours, the pricing time windows for domestic and international markets are not completely synchronized, leading to apparent deviations in intraday price movements.

CITIC Futures stated that gold, as an asset with high market consensus, is more noticeably suppressed by a lack of capital enthusiasm, leaving precious metals trapped in a technically weak predicament. Recently, several foreign investment banks have collectively lowered their full-year gold price forecasts. Although central bank gold purchases from various countries provide a buffer, the buying driven by reserve diversification can only slow the decline and is unlikely to achieve a trend reversal in the short term. While a short-term rebound may occur after precious metals become oversold, high interest rates and a strong U.S. dollar continue to dominate market movements. On July 2nd, the U.S. will release non-farm payrolls data. Given the economic resilience potentially maintained under the effect of the World Cup events, the weak pattern for gold is temporarily difficult to break.

Ruidong Futures indicated that the upside for precious metals in the short term remains constrained by high U.S. dollar levels and real interest rates. A trend reversal and rebound still require clearer macroeconomic catalysts. From a medium to long-term perspective, emerging market central banks maintain their strategy of buying on dips. The logic of central bank gold purchases and the global reallocation of reserve assets has not loosened, still providing underlying support for gold.