On September 15, gold markets once again set new record highs last week, as investor disappointment with economic data further fueled expectations for the Federal Reserve to restart its easing cycle. NCE Platform believes that with gold firmly closing above $3,600 per ounce, the market is reassessing how much positive sentiment has been priced into the easing trajectory. Data shows gold ultimately closed at $3,644.60 per ounce last week, up 1.6% from the previous week. Meanwhile, silver's breakout rally continues, closing at $42.11 per ounce, hitting a 14-year high with weekly gains approaching 3%.

NCE Platform notes that the market is not only focused on the Fed's potential rate-cutting pace but also attempting to digest the uncertainties behind its monetary policy. Independent analyst Jesse Colombo believes that gold's price rise is not merely a response to easing expectations alone, but also reflects concerns about compromised monetary policy independence. Recent significant labor market weakness and potential recession risks suggest that a new round of easing could drive rates down by as much as 100 basis points. However, Colombo also points out that the Fed might exacerbate market volatility through overreaction.

ETF Strategy Director Robert Minter states that the Fed's moderate rate-cutting path has already supported gold's breakthrough to the technical target of $3,700, while more aggressive rate cuts could provide further upside potential. He emphasizes that the latest employment data revisions reduced nearly one million jobs, representing the worst performance in a decade and providing the market with justification for more substantial rate cuts. Minter believes that if the Fed chooses to cut by 50 basis points in one move, while this would be viewed as a "panic operation," it would also be reasonable given the data backdrop and might even hint at more easing room through 2026.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market currently sees only a 5% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut this week, while previous Fed projections included only two rate cuts next year. FXTM Senior Analyst Lukman Otunuga points out that if substantial rate cuts do occur this week, gold prices could quickly break through $3,700, but if it's only 25 basis points, the key will be whether the dot plot matches market expectations for further cuts. Otherwise, gold prices might face short-term pullbacks.

Pepperstone Senior Analyst Michael Brown suggests the market may be overestimating the Fed's willingness to ease, as inflation remains elevated. He believes the likelihood of substantial Fed rate cuts this week is low, and the market's 70 basis point expectation actually poses short-term pullback risks for gold. However, he remains bullish on gold long-term, viewing any pullbacks as allocation opportunities. Saxo Bank Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen also emphasizes that gold's technical outlook remains strong, with prices potentially challenging $3,800 further.

Short-term volatility will not change gold's long-term upward logic. NCE Platform believes that major central banks' policy directions remain the market's focus, with the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan set to hold meetings successively this week. Overall, the combination of global easing atmosphere and safe-haven demand will continue to serve as important support for precious metal prices. For investors, NCE Platform recommends taking a rational view of short-term adjustments and seizing medium to long-term allocation opportunities.