Dollar Wealth Products See Early Profit-Taking as Scale Soars 50%: How Sustainable Are the Advantages?

Market Watcher
07/16

Investor Li Jing recounted her experience: "Last December, I converted 200,000 yuan into dollars for a wealth management product boasting a 4.35% performance benchmark – substantially higher than yuan alternatives. Yet upon maturity, exchange rate fluctuations eroded gains, leaving returns comparable to domestic options. The effort proved hardly worthwhile."

Amid persistently declining yuan deposit rates and wealth management benchmarks, investors increasingly seek stable high-yield assets, turning toward dollar-denominated products. However, industry experts caution these instruments carry entry thresholds and unignorable currency risk. Decisions should align with actual dollar usage needs rather than speculative motives.

The dollar wealth management surge continues unabated. One city commercial bank relationship manager noted: "Previously offered dollar products yielded up to 5%. Though rates have moderated to 3.8% for current one-year R1-risk offerings – fully allocated to dollar deposits – they still outperform yuan equivalents. Our entire product series maintains perfect payout compliance."

Market data reveals explosive growth. By mid-December last year, outstanding dollar wealth management scale reached 282 billion yuan – doubling year-over-year. PY Standard reports show 1,328 active dollar products totaling 461.7 billion yuan by July 10, 2025, marking 50.2% expansion since year-end 2024.

Notably, early profit-taking events surfaced this year. CMB Wealth Management terminated its QDII Dollar Deposit Target Return No.6 fixed-income product on July 10 – 17 months before its scheduled December 2026 maturity – having met preset profit-taking conditions. Similarly, ABC Wealth Management ended its Linglong 2024 Series No.15 fixed-income dollar product three months early on February 27.

Securities analysts explain such early closures follow standard protocols: "Trigger conditions defined in prospectuses allow investors to lock gains amid volatility. For banks, it mitigates pressure from impending Fed rate cuts. However, investors face reinvestment risks retrieving principal prematurely."

The dollar product appeal primarily stems from yield spreads. June 2025 saw 2,789 newly issued wealth products: open-end offerings averaged 1.97% benchmarks while closed-end products hit 2.54%. Yuan-denominated R2-risk products averaged 2.56%, with R1 offerings at 2.11% – both underperforming comparable dollar products by approximately 2 percentage points.

A securities researcher attributes this gap to two factors: "First, the significant Fed-China policy rate differential persists despite recent cuts. Second, bond prices rise during rate-cut cycles, enhancing portfolio returns." Yet industry professionals urge caution. The relationship manager warned: "While current 4% yields hold, impending Fed cuts will inevitably compress returns long-term."

Li Jing's calculations highlight hidden costs: "After deducting yuan appreciation's 2% impact and exchange spreads, my net return was roughly 2.3%. Timing currency conversions around the volatile 7.2 exchange rate contradicts the hassle-free premise of wealth management. Future yuan strength or Fed cuts could further erode advantages."

Bank representatives advise careful consideration: "Unless anticipating actual dollar expenditures, converting yuan specifically for these products appears inadvisable given the compounded currency and policy uncertainties clouding their long-term value proposition."

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