The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain its policy rate has reinforced market expectations that monetary tightening will proceed cautiously under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's leadership. This move directly weakened the yen while supporting Japanese government bonds.
Disclosures revealed only two board members voted for a rate hike during the monetary policy meeting, which investors widely interpreted as a dovish signal. Market participants are now closely monitoring BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's upcoming remarks for policy clues.
Analysts broadly agree that given the BOJ's stable inflation outlook and unchanged voting pattern, a rate hike before 2026 appears unlikely. Market strategists remain divided in their reactions.
Chong Hoon Park, Standard Chartered's head of Korea and Japan economics research, noted that if markets solidify expectations of prolonged low rates, yen short positions could accumulate further. He emphasized that Japan's rate hikes would face greater challenges during a Fed easing cycle, with officials likely remaining wary of U.S. macroeconomic risks. Meanwhile, the yen's risk-reward ratio as a carry trade funding currency "may deteriorate," as BOJ rate decisions remain data-dependent with uncertainties at every meeting.
Carol Kong, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney, stressed that Governor Ueda would only signal stronger rate hike intentions with government approval. She observed that while markets continue speculating on the BOJ's next move, the latest policy statement offered no clear guidance. Investors should instead focus on Ueda's press conference—particularly any discussion of coordination with Takaichi's dovish-leaning administration. Without explicit signals, Ueda may reiterate that hikes will only follow sustained economic progress.
Felix Ryan, ANZ Group strategist, expects the BOJ to remain cautious on policy normalization, keeping USD/JPY above 150. He predicts Ueda will emphasize data-dependent, gradual hikes while noting that Fed policy reassessments may sustain near-term yen weakness.
Alex Lu, TD Securities macro strategist, pointed out the BOJ's unchanged policy language could disappoint yen bulls hoping for hawkish hints. Despite market hopes for a Powell-style Halloween surprise, Ueda's historical dovish bias prevailed. Notably, while only two members dissented, speculation persists about hidden opposition—highlighting the BOJ's delicate balance between normalization efforts and a dovish government.
Hiroshi Tsukamoto, T&D Asset Management chief strategist, said the BOJ's decision aligns with expectations for Takaichi's dovish monetary stance, potentially offering Japanese equities breathing room. Though December hikes were previously considered possible, the minimal dissent reinforced dovish perceptions, triggering yen selling.
David Forrester, Crédit Agricole senior FX strategist, noted the rate hold slightly exceeded expectations, but sustained low-rate expectations continue pressuring the yen, allowing USD/JPY to rebound. He highlighted that with only Tamura and Takata opposing hikes and minor inflation forecast tweaks, the BOJ may still resume tightening in coming months.