Goldman Sachs Predicts Accelerated Rise in Aluminum Prices, Recommends China Hongqiao and CHALCO

Stock News
03/09

A research report from CICC indicates that on March 3rd and 4th, Middle Eastern aluminum producers Qatar Aluminum and Bahrain Aluminum successively declared force majeure. Qatar Aluminum has an annual capacity of 636,000 tons, while Bahrain Aluminum's annual capacity stands at 1.62 million tons, accounting for 0.8% and 2.0% of global production, respectively. Following this news, LME aluminum prices continued to climb, rising 2.5% on March 3rd and surging as much as 5% during the night session on March 4th, reaching $3,418 per ton, the highest level since 2022. The report highlights a revaluation opportunity driven by bullish aluminum prices and expanding profit margins per ton. The bank believes that the widening supply-demand gap for aluminum, combined with increased vulnerability due to US-Iran tensions and supportive global fiscal and monetary policies, could push aluminum prices to new highs. With costs remaining low, profit per ton of aluminum is expected to expand further. Considering the rebound in energy and alumina prices, it is advisable to focus on companies with high self-sufficiency in power and alumina. Recommended stocks include Nanshan Aluminum International (02610), China Hongqiao (01378), CHALCO (02600), Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ), Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH), and Huatong Wire & Cable (605196.SH).

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