Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. has released a research report indicating that platform competition in the second quarter of 2026 is gradually shifting from high-intensity investment back to rationality. The combined effect of core business profit recovery and narrowing losses in new ventures confirms an industry profit inflection point. Looking ahead, as subsidy deployment becomes more restrained, unit economics in instant retail continue to improve, and cross-border operations pivot from scale expansion toward localization and profitability enhancement, leading platforms are poised to unlock further profit elasticity in their core businesses. Concurrently, AI infrastructure investment keeps intensifying, with Alibaba's AI cloud revenue and margins rising in tandem. AI large models are rapidly penetrating e-commerce search, marketing, customer service, supply chain, and AI-agent shopping scenarios, and the synergy between AI and core commerce operations is expected to open new growth avenues.
Online consumption shows resilience, platform GMV growth stabilizes, and competition shifts toward ecosystem and efficiency
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, total retail sales of consumer goods from January to July 2026 reached RMB 28.77 trillion, up 1.2% year-on-year. Nationwide online retail sales of goods and services hit RMB 11.72 trillion, up 4.8%, with online physical goods retail rising 4.6% to RMB 7.40 trillion, underscoring that online channels remain a key pillar supporting consumption growth. In Q2 2026, traditional e-commerce platform GMV growth moderated quarter-over-quarter, weighed down by a high comparison base and a soft overall consumption environment. However, looking to the second half of the year, as the base effect fades and AI tools penetrate both demand and supply sides, platform GMV growth is expected to stabilize and recover. The 618 shopping festival delivered positive growth signals, with platforms stimulating consumer spending through enhanced subsidies, deeper AI applications, and optimized operational cadence. Competition during promotional events is evolving from pure low pricing to a contest of subsidy efficiency, AI tools, and refined operational capabilities.
AI empowerment accelerates in e-commerce, and instant retail competition landscape further improves
AI demand is expanding rapidly, prompting major internet firms to step up infrastructure and model application investments. According to Omdia, in China's AI cloud market for 2025, Alibaba Cloud, Volcano Engine, and Baidu Cloud led with shares of 38.1%, 20.4%, and 9.4%, respectively, indicating still-fierce head-to-head competition. The iteration pace of AI models among internet giants is quickening, with the competitive focus shifting to scenario penetration, ecosystem synergy, and commercial deployment. Notably, the Qianwen app fully integrated Taobao and Tmall e-commerce services on May 7, reaching 167 million monthly active users (MAU) by June 2026, bridging the gap between AI entry points and consumer scenarios. On the pricing front, the logic for domestic large models and AI infrastructure is undergoing a systemic shift, with vendors moving from price-for-volume strategies to competing on training investment, model capability, and compute returns. In instant retail, competition has peaked and the landscape is stabilizing, with platforms now prioritizing efficiency and ecosystem collaboration. As of June 2026, Taobao Flash Purchase, Meituan Waimai, and JD Waimai recorded MAUs of 73.38 million, 56.21 million, and 2.96 million, respectively, while Taobao and Meituan's food delivery market structure remains stable, with platform-related spending notably reduced.
Cross-border e-commerce competition logic is being reshaped, with AI and localization emerging as core capabilities for overseas expansion
The new EU tariffs and handling fees on low-value parcels have significantly narrowed the cost advantage of the traditional "domestic consolidation plus cross-border direct shipping" model, prompting leading platforms to accelerate migration toward overseas warehouses, local delivery networks, local suppliers, and offline O2O channels. Temu is shifting from fully managed to semi-managed and local wholesale models, while AliExpress is improving operational profitability through logistics optimization and enhanced local supply. SHEIN and Joybuy continue to strengthen their European warehouse and distribution networks. Meanwhile, AI is expanding from product selection, marketing, and customer service into logistics, compliance, and agent commerce. The competitive focus in cross-border platforms is pivoting from low-cost traffic to supply chain resilience, fulfillment efficiency, profitability quality, and intelligent operations.
Revenue growth diverges across core businesses, with AI cloud and instant retail as key increments, while profit-side core business recovery is further confirmed
In Q2 2026, Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and Meituan posted revenues of RMB 269.0 billion, RMB 346.4 billion, and RMB 112.4 billion, respectively, up 8.6%, 8.0%, and 13.9% year-on-year. Alibaba's instant retail revenue grew 45%, while AI cloud and computing services revenue also increased 45% to RMB 48.4 billion, with adjusted EBITA surging 133% and margins climbing to 11.6%. Pinduoduo maintained double-digit growth in transaction services. Meituan's core local commerce revenue rose 10.1%. On the profit side, Meituan's core local commerce operating profit swung from a loss in Q1 to a profit of RMB 5.67 billion in Q2, Alibaba's core e-commerce profit showed resilience, and the industry's operational focus has shifted from scale-driven spending back to efficiency and returns.
Risk warnings: consumer spending may fall short of expectations, intensifying industry competition, slower-than-expected development of new businesses, and subsidy investments exceeding forecasts.