Barclays stated on Friday that Brent crude oil prices could approach $120 per barrel if the Middle East conflict persists for several more weeks.
The bank noted, "These figures may currently appear 'excessive,' especially given the market's generally pessimistic outlook for oil this year. However, we reiterate that current fundamentals and risks are greater than when we observed these price levels being reached during the Russia-Ukraine conflict."
Due to escalating tensions between the U.S.-Israel alliance and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been blocked, disrupting supplies from the Middle East and driving a sharp rise in oil prices.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was halted after Iran threatened to open fire on passing vessels. The strait handles approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.
As of 18:57 GMT, Brent crude futures were trading around $93.60 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude stood at $91.62 per barrel.
According to Barclays' report, oil held on tankers in the Middle East Gulf has increased by 85 million barrels since the conflict began. The bank also indicated that risks to oil prices remain skewed to the upside.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday demanded Iran's unconditional surrender, marking a sharp escalation in his demands. Just one week earlier, he had joined forces with Israel to initiate the conflict. This move may make it more difficult to negotiate a dignified ceasefire agreement.
Barclays added, "Production halts have already occurred in Kuwait and Iraq, and over time, this situation could spread to the UAE and Saudi Arabia."
The bank highlighted that its "90th percentile tail scenario" now suggests Brent crude could reach $150 per barrel by the end of the month.