A comprehensive research report reveals that the world's most elite family offices are planning their most significant portfolio adjustments in years, with many actively withdrawing capital from US markets. According to the UBS Global Family Office Report, a full 60% of family offices intend to make strategic changes to their investment allocations over the next year—approximately double the level seen over the past five years. Among those planning major shifts, many are reducing their US market holdings and substantially increasing allocations to emerging market assets.

From a global perspective, North America is the only region where family offices plan to decrease their asset allocation over the next 12 months. A majority indicated plans to increase holdings in Latin America and Africa. John Mathews, Head of Americas Private Wealth Management at UBS, noted, "Last year, all family offices were deeply concerned about global trade tariff tensions. Now, the focus has shifted towards geopolitical tensions worldwide, the increasingly unmanageable debt in developed markets, and the current interest rate and long-term US Treasury yield environment—considering both their short-term and longer-term impacts."

This trend aligns with the views of Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, who has consistently advocated for bets against the US dollar, investments in real assets, and non-dollar assets, particularly recommending allocations to non-US markets, local currency assets, and emerging markets. He suggests allocating at least 30-40% of a portfolio to non-dollar assets and is bullish on gold, silver, and emerging markets benefiting from a weaker dollar. His underlying rationale is that US debt, fiscal deficits, valuation concentration, and risks to the dollar's purchasing power are undermining the narrative of "US assets as the sole safe haven."

This shift reflects a broader move away from US markets by family offices, the private investment vehicles for the world's wealthiest families. Concerns over high US market concentration, fears of an AI bubble, tariff policies, a declining US dollar index, volatile economic policies, and rising debt and bond yields have prompted many to reduce US exposure and diversify capital globally. However, advisors caution this is not a wholesale "sell America" trade. Instead, international family offices seek broader geographical diversification as global crises multiply. Wars in Ukraine and Iran, shifting tariffs, immigration debates, and debt disputes have created a more complex investment landscape. In the absence of a true safe haven, the best strategy is to balance risk-adjusted returns globally.

A new buzzword in family office investing is "jurisdictional diversification"—spreading capital across multiple countries to hedge risks. According to the UBS survey, two-thirds of family offices currently allocate their investable banking assets across at least three jurisdictions. Nearly one-third allocate assets across at least four, including Latin America, the US, China, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.

A primary goal for these offices is to reduce their US dollar-denominated investment exposure, or what some term "de-dollarization." Over a quarter plan to decrease their holdings of dollar-denominated assets. Two-thirds expect confidence in the dollar's role as the global reserve currency to continue declining, with nearly half stating their dollar exposure has been too high for too long. The Swiss franc and the euro are highlighted as the preferred sovereign currencies for diversification.

The survey identifies geopolitical uncertainty as the number one risk for both the next 12 months and the next five years, followed by global trade wars. Hyperinflation, cyberattacks, and debt crises are also listed as high risks. "These forces indicate family offices are preparing not just for near-term volatility but for a longer-term phase of higher, interconnected risk in financial markets," the report states. "They appear focused on building resilience within a broader, more complex risk landscape by aligning asset allocation adjustments with multi-jurisdiction strategies."

Family offices plan to increase allocations to emerging market equities, infrastructure, and gold investments, while slightly reducing cash and real estate holdings. However, a significant and widening divergence exists between US-based and international family offices. US offices are content to maintain concentrated domestic allocations, reporting that their average US asset share increased from 86% to 88% over the past year. North America also represents the bulk of global family investment, accounting for roughly 53% of total global family assets. In contrast, non-US family offices are repatriating more capital or directing it to other non-US markets. For instance, Chinese family offices currently invest half their assets in Western Europe, while Western European offices allocate 41% of assets within their home region.

Mathews observed, "US family offices are essentially doubling down on domestic asset types. But all other family offices worldwide are now diversifying somewhat away from US dollar-denominated securities, steadily and thoroughly moving capital out of the US."

Globally, while North America is the only region slated for reduced allocation over the next 12 months, family offices plan to increase allocations to Latin America and Africa. More critically, over a quarter plan to cut dollar-denominated assets, about two-thirds anticipate declining confidence in the dollar's reserve status, and nearly half consider their dollar exposure excessive. This suggests "de-dollarization" is spreading from central bank reserves to the asset allocation strategies of ultra-high-net-worth private capital.

Beyond Gundlach, institutions like JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch express optimism about emerging markets from various angles. JPMorgan Private Bank believes drivers for emerging market equities by 2026 include a weaker US dollar, more favorable global financial conditions, demographics, domestic consumption, manufacturing, infrastructure, and digital ecosystem investments. Morgan Stanley Investment Management views the 2026 outlook for emerging market debt as "bright," supported by receding inflation, attractive currency valuations, rising demand for non-dollar assets, and smoother easing paths for many emerging market central banks that raised rates earlier.

JPMorgan Asset Management also notes the US dollar could see a moderate annual depreciation of 2-4% over the long term, which would improve external financing conditions and ease US dollar debt repayment pressures for emerging markets. Market performance already reflects more than just macro narratives. JPMorgan Asset Management highlights that the MSCI Emerging Markets Index returned 34.4% in US dollar terms last year and continued outperforming into early 2026, rising 11.5% year-to-date. Data shows emerging markets had a strong start to 2026, fueled by the dollar hitting a four-year low, with markets like Colombia, South Korea, Turkey, Brazil, South Africa, and Taiwan delivering robust US dollar returns, some exceeding 20%. South Korea and Taiwan are driven by the AI semiconductor supply chain, while Latin America and South Africa are supported by high real interest rates, currency appreciation, and commodity prices.

This indicates emerging markets are not driven by a single narrative but by a complex revaluation trend combining a weaker dollar, high real interest rates, the commodity cycle, AI supply chains, and local reforms. Risks remain: a resurgent dollar due to war or safe-haven demand, continued rises in US long-term bond yields, oil price shocks burdening emerging market importers, or a sudden downturn in global risk appetite could pressure emerging markets periodically. Nonetheless, from a medium- to long-term asset allocation perspective, "reducing US and US dollar concentration while increasing weightings in emerging markets and non-dollar assets" is becoming a shared direction for a growing number of top-tier capital allocators.