A prominent financial analyst has made a striking forecast regarding the price of gold. The recent downturn in gold has not only pushed its price down to $4,043 per ounce but has also seen it dip slightly below its 50-week simple moving average (SMA). According to on-chain analyst Ali Martinez, this price action may be forming a structure that could lead to a potential "explosive rally."

In a social media post, the expert pointed out a historical parallel. In late September 2023, a similar situation occurred when the gold price retreated to $1,932 per ounce, which subsequently preceded a rally of approximately 190%.

If this pattern were to repeat, the price of gold could potentially surge well beyond $10,000 per ounce, even reaching around $11,724 by mid-2028.

However, significant uncertainty remains regarding whether such a dramatic performance will occur again. For one, even at its current post-correction levels, gold is still trading substantially higher than its pre-October 2025 historical prices, which may somewhat constrain its future upside potential.

Furthermore, Ali Martinez noted that to trigger a similar bullish setup, gold must reclaim and close above its 50-week moving average (approximately $4,320 per ounce) on a weekly chart basis.

Consequently, the gold price would need to rise by about 6.85% from its current level of $4,043 to make the prospect of another major bull run significantly more plausible.

Why Gold's Rise in 2026 Remains a Possibility

Simultaneously, there appears to be a "floor" for gold prices in the foreseeable future, preventing them from falling too low. One of the key sources of support—central bank purchases—seems to remain robust, with institutions continuing to add to their gold reserves on a large scale.

This trend is driven by multiple factors, including inflationary pressures, geopolitical uncertainties, and the desire of nations to seek alternative systems to mitigate risks associated with unilateral sanctions. These drivers have been prominent throughout the 2020s.

Given that the landscape for 2026 involves new conflicts or military actions, stricter sanctions on various entities, and a perceived decline in confidence towards U.S. Treasury debt, this buying pressure is unlikely to diminish.

Does the Gold Price Drop Signal an Impending Financial Crisis?

Meanwhile, some experts suggest that gold's previous rally to $5,400 per ounce and its subsequent pullback might be signaling greater financial stress ahead.

It is noteworthy that an analysis highlighted significant, though not identical, similarities between the precious metal's price action in 2008 and its current trajectory in 2026.