Key Points
1. PTA Export Volume Surges in September In September, the PTA export volume reached 344,000 tons, surpassing the annual average due to the traditional demand season. For the first nine months, the average monthly export volume was around 320,000 tons, with September showing robust demand from the textile and apparel industry, particularly in Vietnam where exports exceeded 60,000 tons, marking a month-on-month increase of 42.23% and a year-on-year increase of 66.50%. Domestic PTA supply remains ample, but the market sees a weakening basis under current pricing pressures, necessitating increased exports to alleviate supply constraints.
2. Negative Factors: Foreign Certifications and New Capacity There has been no concrete progress on PTA certification for the Indian market. From 2021 to 2023, India has been China's largest trade partner for PTA. However, with the expiration of export certifications, China's PTA exports to India have plummeted. Between January and September 2025, exports to India totaled 189,100 tons, a drop of 771,300 tons compared to the peak in 2022. The foreign certification landscape remains critical to monitor.
New production capacities overseas further hinder China's PTA exports. For instance, in the first nine months of 2025, PTA exports to Turkey amounted to 287,000 tons, significantly down by 512,200 tons from 2024's peak. Additionally, India plans to commission two PTA facilities of 1.25 million and 1.5 million tons in 2026, which, if operational, could drastically reduce demand for Chinese PTA.
3. Positive Factors: Strong Integrated Competitiveness of Domestic PTA Firms From July to October, PTA processing fees have oscillated around 200 yuan per ton, resulting in theoretical production losses for PTA. Nonetheless, the integrated operations of domestic PTA companies allow them to leverage process advantages to reduce energy consumption and offset losses with profits from downstream products, enabling continued production despite low processing fees. In contrast, many foreign PTA plants operate with smaller capacities and are likely to face obsolescence in this low fee environment.
4. Forecast: Increased Resistance for Short to Medium-Term Exports, Optimistic Long-Term Outlook The prognosis indicates heightened resistance to PTA exports in the short and medium term. The average monthly export volume from January to September 2025 dipped by around 50,000 tons compared to 2024, with no immediate new markets to compensate for the shrinking Indian and Turkish markets. It is estimated that the total PTA export volume for 2025 will be approximately 3.84 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 13%. Market participants predict that by April 2026, India may commission a new PTA facility of 1.25 million tons, potentially capturing significant market share due to its geographical coverage.
In the long run, however, the outlook for PTA exports remains positive. Many overseas PTA facilities have single-set capacities below one million tons, which, relative to the integrated and larger capacities of domestic plants, means higher unit costs for foreign producers.
In conclusion, the sluggish export markets in India and Turkey are flanking short to mid-term PTA exports from China, suggesting that export volumes in 2026 may likely be below the peak seen in 2024. However, plans for four new PTA production capacities in China slated for 2027-2028, with an average capacity of 2.75 million tons, are expected to strengthen cost and supply chain advantages, favoring long-term PTA exports.