According to a research report from China Galaxy Securities, new aggregate financing to the real economy (AFRE) in February 2026 reached 9.6 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 146.1 billion yuan. The growth rate of outstanding AFRE remained unchanged from the previous month at 8.2%. The credit structure continued to optimize, primarily driven by a year-on-year increase of 450 billion yuan in corporate loans, with no significant bill financing inflation observed. Household loans remained weak, decreasing by 650.7 billion yuan, mainly due to concentrated post-holiday repayments and sluggish real estate sales. The year-on-year growth rate of M1 rose to 5.9%, and the M1-M2 growth spread narrowed to -3.1%, indicating a continued improvement in the activation level of funds. The key views of China Galaxy Securities are as follows:

AFRE continued its year-on-year growth, with the growth rate remaining flat month-on-month. New AFRE in February was 9.6 trillion yuan, up 146.1 billion yuan year-on-year. By the end of February, the outstanding AFRE increased by 8.2% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month. Growth in corporate loans contributed to the year-on-year increase in RMB loans, while government bond issuance was weaker year-on-year due to a high base effect.

The level of fund activation continued to improve. RMB loans contributed to the increase in AFRE, while government bonds underperformed compared to the same period last year due to the high base. In February, RMB loans increased by 848.4 billion yuan, up 195.6 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by corporate loans. New government bonds amounted to 1.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 290.3 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly affected by the high base from the same period last year and the timing of the Spring Festival. The issuance scale of government bonds in February was approximately 2.18 trillion yuan, a reduction of 103 billion yuan compared to the same period last year. Corporate bonds increased by 152.1 billion yuan, down 18.1 billion yuan year-on-year. Domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises increased by 45.4 billion yuan, up 37.8 billion yuan year-on-year. Off-balance-sheet financing decreased by 162.7 billion yuan, a reduction of 191.8 billion yuan less than the decline seen a year earlier. Within this, undiscounted bank acceptance bills fell by 175.5 billion yuan, a decrease that was 123.2 billion yuan smaller year-on-year.

The structure of corporate loans continued to optimize, while household loans remained weak. By the end of February, the outstanding balance of RMB loans at financial institutions grew by 6% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. In February alone, RMB loans at financial institutions increased by 900 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 110 billion yuan, with household loans remaining a drag, although corporate loans performed relatively well. Household loans decreased by 650.7 billion yuan, a decline 261.6 billion yuan greater than the same period last year. Within this, short-term household loans fell by 469.3 billion yuan, a decrease 195.2 billion yuan larger year-on-year, likely influenced by concentrated post-holiday repayments and insufficient demand. Medium and long-term household loans decreased by 181.5 billion yuan, a drop 66.5 billion yuan greater year-on-year, likely related to subdued real estate sales, as the sales value of the top 100 property developers fell 35.9% year-on-year in February. Corporate loans increased by 1.49 trillion yuan, up 450 billion yuan year-on-year. Medium and long-term corporate loans rose by 890 billion yuan, an increase of 350 billion yuan year-on-year; short-term corporate loans increased by 600 billion yuan, up 270 billion yuan year-on-year; bill financing decreased by 35 billion yuan, a decline 204.3 billion yuan greater year-on-year, indicating no significant bill financing inflation.

The level of fund activation continued to improve, with corporate deposits shifting to households. In February, M1 and M2 grew by 5.9% and 9% year-on-year, respectively, with M1 up 1 percentage point month-on-month and M2 flat. The M1-M2 growth spread was -3.1%, narrowing by 1 percentage point month-on-month, indicating a continued improvement in fund activation. By the end of February, RMB deposits at financial institutions increased by 8.7% year-on-year, with the growth rate down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. In February alone, RMB deposits at financial institutions increased by 1.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.25 trillion yuan. Within this, household deposits increased by 3.11 trillion yuan, up 2.5 trillion yuan year-on-year, while corporate deposits decreased by 2.65 trillion yuan, a decline 1.76 trillion yuan greater year-on-year, primarily attributed to pre-holiday salary and bonus payments by companies, leading to a transfer of deposits from corporates to households. Fiscal deposits decreased by 350 billion yuan, a drop 1.61 trillion yuan greater year-on-year. Deposits of non-bank financial institutions increased by 1.39 trillion yuan, a rise 1.44 trillion yuan smaller year-on-year, mainly due to the high base effect from the same period last year.

Risk warnings include economic performance falling short of expectations and the risk of deteriorating asset quality; declining interest rates and pressure on Net Interest Margins (NIM); and the impact of tariffs coupled with weakening demand.