CITIC SECURITIES reports that Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines has issued an immediate ban on the export of lithium ore. This policy is designed to strengthen mineral regulation and promote the development of local deep-processing capabilities for mineral products. In 2025, 19% of China's imported lithium concentrate originated from Zimbabwe. It is projected that Zimbabwe will account for 12% of global lithium resource production in 2026. The country's export ban is expected to exacerbate short-term supply shortages of lithium carbonate in China, potentially driving a substantial increase in lithium prices. Investors are advised to focus on entities not affected by the export policy.

Zimbabwe has suspended all exports of raw lithium ore and lithium concentrate, including shipments already in transit. Only mining enterprises holding valid mining licenses and possessing approved deep-processing capacity for mineral products will be authorized to export. Under these regulations, the export of lithium sulfate from Zimbabwe remains unaffected. The Ministry of Mines stated that the policy aims to enhance mineral oversight and accountability, foster the growth of local value-added processing, and maximize the retention of mineral value within Zimbabwe.

Indications of Zimbabwe's lithium export restrictions were apparent earlier. On June 10, 2025, the Ministry of Mines announced a ban on lithium concentrate exports effective January 2027, requiring mining companies to establish local lithium salt smelting capacity. The recent suspension is viewed as a further measure to urge leading mining enterprises to sign agreements and build local processing facilities, thereby increasing industrial value-added. It is anticipated that the government may provide export windows for major miners before local smelting capacity is fully established. This move is expected to raise export barriers, exclude informal traders and unlicensed miners, increase industry concentration, and benefit Chinese mining companies operating in Zimbabwe.

In 2025, Zimbabwe's lithium resource production was approximately 28,000 metric tons of metal content, accounting for about 10% of global output. Essentially all of Zimbabwe's exports of raw lithium ore and lithium concentrate are destined for China. According to China's General Administration of Customs, China's total lithium ore imports in 2025 reached 7.75 million tons (equivalent to 790,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, LCE), with 1.2 million tons (equivalent to 150,000 tons LCE) sourced from Zimbabwe, representing 19% of total imports. Based on expansion plans announced by lithium mining companies in Zimbabwe, production is projected to reach 235,000 tons in 2026, constituting roughly 12% of global lithium resource output for that year. As downstream demand enters its peak season and lithium salt inventories in China remain low, a significant tightening of short-term lithium carbonate supply is expected until the export ban is lifted, likely fueling a sharp rise in lithium prices.

Amid a global wave of resource nationalism, strategic metals like lithium may continue to experience supply disruptions. In recent years, resource-rich countries for metals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and tin have successively implemented stringent control policies. Examples include Myanmar's tin ore ban, the Democratic Republic of Congo's cobalt export ban, Indonesia's significant reduction in nickel ore production quotas, and now Zimbabwe's lithium export ban. Against the backdrop of rising resource nationalism and the strategic competition for critical mineral dominance, further unexpected policy changes from resource nations affecting the supply of strategic metals are anticipated.

Risk factors include weaker-than-expected enforcement of Zimbabwe's lithium ban, higher-than-anticipated global lithium supply, weaker demand for power batteries, and demand for energy storage batteries being suppressed by high lithium prices.

The investment outlook suggests that the export ban will likely increase export barriers and industry concentration within Zimbabwe. The policy is expected to intensify short-term lithium carbonate supply constraints in China and drive significant price increases. Long-term, supply disruptions for strategic metals like lithium due to national policy shifts may become more frequent, potentially elevating product prices and the valuations of related companies. The recommendation is to monitor investment targets that are insulated from the impacts of such export policies.