ASX Weekly Review: Political Uncertainty Leads to Market Decline from Record Highs

TigerNews AU
10/18

Political uncertainties caused the Australian stock market to weaken on Friday, with investors moving towards gold and away from energy and technology stocks.

Upcoming talks between Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and President Donald Trump added to the uncertainty, leading to declines even in shares of critical mineral miners.

Albanese has been working to position Australia as a key supplier of critical minerals, aiming to leverage this in negotiations over tariffs and as a safeguard against potential Chinese export restrictions.

At the close of trade, the ASX 200 Index retreated by 0.8% or 73.1 points to settle at 8,995.3 points, falling short of the record high above 9,100 points reached on Thursday.

Despite this pullback, the market still managed a 0.4% gain for the week.

Commodities were a central focus, with investor concerns about stressed credit markets and ongoing tariff disputes between China and the US.

Gold Shines Again

Gold miners saw strength as gold prices peaked at US$4,378.69, with Newmont (ASX: NEM) rising 2.9% to $149.96, Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST) up 2.3% to $26.05, and Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) jumping 1.9% to $11.67.

Critical mineral miners, including those in copper, lithium, and rare earth metals, faced significant declines amid worries about the outcomes of the Albanese-Trump meeting.

Critical Minerals Wobble

Significant movers included Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC), down 5.7% to $19.24, and Iluka Resources (ASX: ILU), which fell 2.4% to $8.10 after withdrawing its sales forecast due to demand uncertainties from a key customer, Venator.

Uranium producer and explorer Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) saw its shares drop 6.8% to $9.20.

Some investors are concerned that leveraging Australia's critical minerals stockpile for trade negotiations might backfire.

The major miners had varied performances, with BHP Group (ASX: BHP) down 0.4% to $43.60 due to ongoing Chinese price negotiations, while Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) rose 1.3% to $130.88 and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) increased 1.9% to $20.18.

Oil Price Continues to Fall

Continued pressure from President Trump on Russian oil exports led to declines in energy stocks, with Woodside Energy Group (ASX: WDS) falling 2.6% and Santos Limited (ASX: STO) dropping 3.3%.

Overall, energy stocks fell 2.8% after global crude oil prices decreased following Trump's agreement to meet with Russia's Vladimir Putin in Hungary next week to discuss resolving the Ukraine conflict.

The conflict has seen the US attempting to halt purchases of Russian oil.

Technology stocks also weakened, with Life360 INC-CDI (ASX: 360) among the hardest hit, falling 8% to $45.54.

The financial sector had a rough time as well, with QBE Insurance Group (ASX: QBE) losing 9.3% to $19.52.

The major banks mostly declined, with National Australia Bank (ASX: NAB) and Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC) both dropping over 0.8%, while Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) managed a slight rise of 0.1%.

The Week Ahead

The scheduled face-to-face meeting between Albanese and Trump next week will undoubtedly be a key factor, fraught with unpredictability.

The meeting could result in anything from a cancellation, disaster, triumph, or a brief discussion without addressing substantial trade and AUKUS issues.

Markets dislike uncertainty, and few things are as unpredictable as a meeting with President Trump - Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy can attest to the potential pitfalls.

US Inflation Holds the Key for Rate Decisions

Some economic releases are expected, although the US government shutdown has delayed many data points.

US inflation data, due on Friday, is expected to indicate a slight acceleration due to tariff effects.

These CPI figures will be pivotal as they precede the US Federal Reserve's meeting to consider interest rate adjustments on October 28 and 29.

Locally, numerous shareholder meetings and production updates from various mining firms could significantly impact individual share prices.

Third-quarter earnings reports in the US will also be scrutinized for profit upgrades to support the market's high valuations.

Adding to the uncertainty are numerous variables, including talks on the Ukraine conflict, ongoing US-China trade disputes, and Russia's continued drone incursions into NATO airspace.

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