Abstract

Aurubis Ag will report fiscal Q2 2025 results on May 11, 2026 Pre-Market; investors will focus on revenue, margins, net profit, and adjusted EPS alongside management’s guidance for the second half of the fiscal year.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter indicates revenue of 6.56 billion US dollars, EBIT of 137.57 million US dollars, and adjusted EPS of 2.32, implying year-over-year growth of 32.73%, 66.44%, and 69.24%, respectively; the company’s gross profit margin and net profit margin are expected to improve modestly versus last year, supported by better treatment and refining charges, while net profit growth is forecast at a higher pace than sales. The main business is projected to benefit from stable custom smelting throughput and resilient multimetal recycling inflows; the most promising segment is Multimetal Recycling with an expected cyclical recovery in scrap availability and pricing, helping revenue rise at a faster clip compared with consolidated growth.

Last Quarter Review

The previous quarter delivered revenue of 5.28 billion US dollars, a gross profit margin of 13.04%, net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.32 billion US dollars with a net profit margin of 6.08%, and adjusted EPS of 1.86; revenue grew 25.36% year over year while EPS declined 17.70% year over year. Management highlighted a sequential rebound in net profit (quarter-on-quarter change of 666.67%) driven by normalization after one-off effects. By business line, Custom Smelting & Products generated 5.35 billion US dollars and Multimetal Recycling 1.24 billion US dollars, with intersegment eliminations of -0.16 billion US dollars.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Custom Smelting & Products

Custom Smelting & Products remains the largest revenue contributor. The quarter’s performance should be shaped by treatment and refining charges in concentrates, smelter availability, and energy price pass-throughs under contracts. Operating leverage from higher throughput and stable maintenance schedules could lift segment gross margin, while product premiums for copper shapes remain supported by downstream demand in electrification-related end-markets. Risks include concentrate market tightness or supply disruptions and volatility in metal price-linked invoices, which could shift inventory valuation and timing of profits.

Most promising business: Multimetal Recycling

Multimetal Recycling is positioned to outgrow the group as scrap availability improves and spreads widen. With broader industrial activity gradually normalizing, feedstock quality and intake mix are likely to trend favorable, enabling better recovery yields for copper, nickel, and precious metals contained in complex scrap. Higher realized refining spreads and improved plant utilization should translate into stronger EBIT sensitivity than the smelting business. However, spot price volatility in precious and minor metals may introduce earnings variability, and any logistics bottlenecks could cap intake growth.

Key stock-price driver: Margins and EBIT conversion

The stock’s near-term direction is likely to hinge on whether the company can convert the forecast revenue growth into EBIT expansion close to guidance. Investors will watch for an uptick in gross profit margin from last year’s baseline in tandem with cost control and stable energy procurement. Delivery against the implied year-over-year gains in adjusted EPS will be particularly scrutinized, given the prior quarter’s decline, and any commentary on treatment and refining charge trends into the second half could influence valuation multiples.

Analyst Opinions

Cautiously bullish views make up the majority of recent commentary, with buy or outperform-leaning stances outweighing neutral or underperform opinions. Analysts highlight supportive treatment and refining charges, resilient copper demand tied to grid and renewables investments, and recovering recycling spreads as key positives for the upcoming print. The more cautious elements emphasize execution around maintenance outages and sensitivity to copper price swings; nonetheless, the consensus favors a positive risk-reward into the release, expecting EBIT and EPS to track above last year’s levels while revenue growth remains robust.