Key Insights to Review Before the USDA's August Report

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release its August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Wednesday, August 12. Ahead of the report, this article outlines the critical market conditions for U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat, along with key balance sheet updates to watch.

The July WASDE report showed a reduction of 125 million bushels in U.S. old-crop corn carryover stocks, while old-crop soybean stocks decreased by 10 million bushels. New-crop corn ending stocks were lowered by 150 million bushels, new-crop soybean ending stocks remained unchanged, and wheat ending stocks fell by 22 million bushels.

The August WASDE marks the first report of the year to use data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) to estimate 2026/27 corn and soybean yields. This data is primarily derived from farmer surveys, combined with satellite imagery, reducing reliance on historical models. Additionally, production estimates incorporate acreage data from the USDA's Farm Service Agency.

Corn Market Outlook

Over the past month, U.S. corn export inspections have been robust, consistently exceeding the USDA's projected pace for the 2025/26 marketing year. Old-crop corn inspections have reached 90% of the USDA's current estimate, compared to the five-year average of 87% for the same period. Ethanol-related corn consumption is slightly below the pace needed to meet the USDA's target. In contrast, the pace of new-crop corn export sales for 2026/27 is different, with committed sales accounting for 11% of the USDA's forecast for that crop year, versus the five-year average of 14%. In the upcoming report, old-crop corn exports may be revised upward, while ethanol demand could be adjusted downward. Given current crop conditions, institutions anticipate a likely slight downward revision in new-crop corn yield estimates.

Soybean Market Outlook

U.S. soybean export inspections have remained steady, outperforming the five-year average pace needed to complete the current estimate for the 2025/26 marketing year by 1%. New-crop soybean export sales for 2026/27 have started strong, with completed sales accounting for 17% of the current estimate, compared to the five-year average of 14% for new-crop export sales at this time. June soybean crush totaled 218 million bushels, up from 213 million bushels in May and higher than the 197 million bushels crushed in June 2025. Old-crop soybean export inspections are closely aligned with the USDA's current forecast pace, and new-crop sales are slightly above the five-year average, suggesting minimal adjustments to soybean export forecasts in the August WASDE report. Institutions also believe that there will be no significant changes to soybean yield estimates in this report. However, it is noteworthy that since 1993, the USDA has only left its August soybean yield estimate unchanged three times.

Wheat Market Focus

Wheat export sales for the 2026/27 marketing year are closely matching the pace needed to achieve the USDA's forecast target. Current sales account for 33% of the annual estimate, slightly below the five-year average of 35%; export inspections are robust, reaching 12% of the current estimate, compared to the five-year average of 11%. The Grain Market Internal Reference expects no major adjustments to wheat ending carryover stock estimates in the August report.

Historical Patterns and Statistical Perspective

Based on data from 2000 to 2023, research indicates that volatility for corn, soybeans, and wheat markets is typically above average on the day of the August WASDE report. For corn, there is a 59% probability of a price increase on the report's release day, ranking it third among all months; the price movement magnitude is also third, with an average absolute fluctuation of 10 cents. The average increase on report day is 8 cents, while the average decline is 12 cents. For soybeans, the probability of a price increase following the August report is also 59%, ranking second among all months; overall volatility ranks third, with an average absolute fluctuation of 18 cents. The average increase is 17 cents, and the average decline is 20 cents. For wheat, the August report has a 59% probability of triggering a price decline, with volatility also ranking third; favorable scenarios average a 9-cent increase, while unfavorable scenarios average an 11-cent decline.