Futures for the three major US indices are trading lower ahead of Monday's opening bell. As of the latest check, Dow Jones futures have slipped 0.09%, S&P 500 futures are down 0.14%, and Nasdaq futures have declined by 0.48%.

In European markets, Germany's DAX is up 0.02%, the UK's FTSE 100 has gained 0.05%, France's CAC 40 has fallen 0.10%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.11%. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil has dropped 1.91% to $85.40 per barrel, with Brent crude trading 1.53% lower at $91.25 per barrel.

Where to focus this week

Investors are bracing for a heavy week of catalysts, with NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) earnings colliding with the Jackson Hole global central bank symposium. After a turbulent week marked by mixed retail earnings, rising bond yields, and an unexpected Treasury intervention, market participants now face five sessions packed with high-impact events. President Trump is expected to announce economic countermeasures against Iran, while NVIDIA will deliver its quarterly report, closing out the tech earnings season. Key inflation data is also due, which will guide the Federal Reserve's next rate decision. Additionally, economists and central bank officials are gathering in Jackson Hole for the annual policy retreat.

At 2:00 AM Beijing time on Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Bessent will hold a press conference, having previously pledged to impose what he described as the most severe sanctions in history against Iran. Vivek Dhar, a commodities analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, noted that it remains unclear whether Washington's strategy of economically isolating Iran will prove effective. If US measures work as intended, the potential for Tehran to respond with increased aggression becomes a growing risk factor for energy markets.

Bessent has access to nearly $1 trillion in the Treasury General Account to fund bond repurchases. According to two senior Treasury officials, the department can use funds from the TGA to support the purchase of government securities. Bessent has already expanded the TGA balance to approximately $950 billion. Last week, the Treasury surprised markets by doubling the size of its bond buyback program, but the impact on yields was short-lived as doubts persist over the actual spending power available to Bessent.

Gold has climbed to its highest level in over three months, buoyed by a softer dollar and policy uncertainty. Spot gold is currently trading near $4,645 per ounce, having earlier touched $4,660, its strongest point since mid-May. The metal gained more than 5% last week. A weaker dollar, driven by the Treasury's long-dated bond repurchase plan, makes gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. Additionally, a portfolio manager at Fidelity International stated that his fund has doubled its gold position, betting on a credibility crisis for the Fed and a diminished safe-haven status for the dollar.

Morgan Stanley has significantly raised its Brent crude oil price forecasts for the coming quarters. The bank cited slower-than-expected supply recovery in the Middle East, keeping the oil market in a supply deficit through the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027. The bank lifted its Q3 2026 Brent forecast from $75 to $90 per barrel, raised Q4 to $100, and adjusted Q1 and Q2 2027 projections to $95 and $90, respectively.

SoftBank Group is planning to issue a record 1 trillion yen (approximately $6.3 billion) in retail bonds. The company is raising funds to meet its investment commitments to OpenAI. This will be SoftBank's third retail bond offering this year, following 418 billion yen raised in April and 260 billion yen in June.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen their strongest weekly inflows in ten months, with $1.92 billion pouring into 13 US-listed funds last week. This surge coincided with Bitcoin's roughly 23% weekly gain, its largest in over three years. The cryptocurrency is currently trading near $78,000.

Stock movers and corporate headlines

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE: BABA) management has stepped in to buy shares. According to the latest Hong Kong Exchange filings, Chairman Joe Tsai and CEO Eddie Wu purchased approximately HK$80 million and HK$40 million worth of Alibaba stock, respectively, following the company's announcement of an HK$80 billion new share placement. The combined purchases of about HK$120 million signal confidence in the company's AI strategy. The proceeds from the placement will be fully allocated to full-stack AI capabilities and AI infrastructure development.

Applied Optoelectronics Inc (NASDAQ: AAOI) shares are plunging in pre-market trading, falling more than 14% at one point. The optical communications company announced plans to raise $600 million through a stock offering, raising concerns over further dilution. Applied Optoelectronics has already tapped similar financing vehicles multiple times this year. The stock has surged over 258% year-to-date through Friday's close.

Disclosure documents reveal that President Trump executed over 1,000 securities trades in June, including significant purchases of Berkshire Hathaway, Visa, Mastercard, Palantir Technologies Inc (NYSE: PLTR), and Cintas Corp (NASDAQ: CTAS). The total value of these transactions ranges between $78.1 million and $263.1 million. The filing shows a range for each trade rather than exact figures. The largest single transaction occurred on June 22, when Trump sold between $5 million and $25 million of the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF.

Samsung Electronics is expected to ramp up DRAM production at a slower pace than anticipated in the second half of the year, according to reports. Despite AI-driven memory demand worsening the DRAM supply shortage, the company is prioritizing the transition from 10nm fifth-generation to 10nm sixth-generation processes, focusing on improving yield rather than expanding output.

Two prominent Wall Street investors, Stanley Druckenmiller and Dan Loeb, have both liquidated their positions in Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ: AVGO) and shifted into Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL). This move signals a change in their AI investment thesis, pivoting from chip suppliers to platform companies with complete, closed-loop ecosystems.

PDD Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: PDD) rose more than 5% in pre-market trading after reporting better-than-expected Q2 adjusted net profit. Revenue for the quarter came in at 112.358 billion yuan, up approximately 8% year-over-year. Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was about 28.5 billion yuan, surpassing the market consensus of 28.023 billion yuan. Adjusted earnings per ADS were 19.33 yuan, versus expectations of 18.51 yuan.

XPeng Inc (NYSE: XPEV) reported Q2 total revenue of 19.74 billion yuan, up 8% year-over-year and 51.5% sequentially. Gross margin came in at 20.7%, above the estimated 19.2%. However, net loss widened to 1.34 billion yuan from 480 million in the same period last year, an increase of nearly 1.8 times. For Q3, the company guides total revenue in the range of 21.7 billion to 23.4 billion yuan, with vehicle deliveries between 115,000 and 121,000 units.

Upcoming events and earnings

At 2:00 AM Beijing time Tuesday: US Treasury Secretary Bessent holds a press conference on specific actions to intensify economic sanctions against Iran.

Tuesday morning: Tuya Inc earnings. Tuesday pre-market: Bank of Montreal, Vipshop Holdings Ltd (NYSE: VIPS), Noah Holdings, EHang Holdings Ltd (NASDAQ: EH), and Tuniu Corp (NASDAQ: TOUR).