Analyst Expansion Slows at Brokerages: How to Break Through?

Deep News
昨天

The securities analyst workforce at brokerages continues to expand.

Choice data shows that as of September 25, there were 5,968 securities analysts at brokerages, an increase of 577 from the same period last year.

Specifically, there is significant differentiation among institutions. Large brokerages such as China International Capital Corporation (CICC), Guotai Haitong Securities, and CITIC Securities all have over 300 analysts, while many small and medium-sized brokerages have fewer than 10 analysts.

Industry sources indicate that the increasing number of listed companies and active market trading have driven brokerages to expand their analyst teams. However, public fund fee reforms have led to declining commission income from fund allocation, forcing research institutes to control costs and shifting the industry from extensive expansion toward high-quality development.

**Significant Industry Differentiation**

Choice data shows that as of September 25, the number of securities analysts reached 5,968, up from 5,391 in the same period of 2024, an increase of 577. Overall, most brokerages are expanding their analyst teams, though some have reduced staff.

Looking at specific institutions, industry differentiation is becoming increasingly pronounced. As of September 25, 23 brokerages had more than 100 analysts. Among them, CICC, Guotai Haitong Securities, and CITIC Securities had 345, 302, and 301 analysts respectively. Although CICC reduced its analyst count by 7 over the past year, it remains the industry leader; Guotai Haitong jumped to second place after the merger; CITIC Securities added 71 analysts over the past year.

Industrial Securities, Huatai Securities, CSC Financial, Changjiang Securities, GF Securities, Zheshang Securities, Sinolink Securities, and China Merchants Securities all have over 150 analysts. Except for GF Securities, which reduced staff by 7, all other mentioned brokerages expanded their teams.

Meanwhile, many small and medium-sized brokerages have fewer than 50 analysts, including Shanghai Securities, Huaxin Securities, Yongxing Securities, Guoyuan Securities, AVIC Securities, Caixiong Securities, Dongxing Securities, Nanjing Securities, Central China Securities, Minmetals Securities, Sinolink Securities, Huabao Securities, Wanlian Securities, and Orient Securities.

Additionally, brokerages such as United Securities, Guodu Securities, Chuancai Securities, Aijian Securities, Yingda Securities, Jianghai Securities, and Hualin Securities have only single-digit analyst numbers.

"The expansion of securities analysts at brokerages is a requirement of the times and a product of industry competition," Gong Tao, Chairman of Shenzhen Zhongjin Huachuang Fund, analyzed. He noted that two main factors influence the growth in analyst teams: first, the increasing number of listed companies drives brokerages to increase investment in research, naturally including analyst team expansion; second, active market conditions have led to a surge in active users, and user demand (particularly from institutional users) has further driven analyst team expansion.

**Expansion Pace Slowing**

In fact, the pace of analyst expansion at brokerages has slowed compared to previous periods. As of September 25, 2023, there were 4,219 securities analysts, with 1,172 added over the following year.

Regarding the noticeable slowdown in securities analyst expansion over the past year, Sui Dong, a wealth researcher at Paipai Network, analyzed that this is mainly affected by the continued contraction of commission allocation income due to changes in the public fund industry. Driven by public fund fee reforms, overall brokerage commission allocation income has declined. Additionally, the increasing proportion of passive fund scale has reduced demand for active research. Furthermore, weakened payment capacity among small and medium-sized public funds has led brokerage research institutes to prioritize cost control as a strategy, becoming more cautious about demand for new talent. Increased internal industry mobility and serious analyst attrition at some small and medium-sized brokerages have also structurally reduced the overall industry personnel expansion rate.

"Behind the slowdown in brokerage analyst expansion is accelerated industry differentiation and transformation of development models," Sui Dong continued. Leading brokerages continue to expand teams leveraging resource and platform advantages, while small and medium-sized brokerages have significantly reduced analyst numbers, further highlighting the industry's "Matthew effect." Meanwhile, brokerage research institutes are shifting focus from scale expansion to quality competition, with rising demand for deep research capabilities. Experienced expert-type researchers are more favored, and the era of high salaries for young analysts is gradually ending. Some small and medium-sized brokerages are gradually withdrawing from sell-side research business, turning to internal service support, further reshaping the industry competitive landscape.

Chen Xingwen, Chief Strategy Officer at Heizaki Capital, also noted that the slowdown in brokerage analyst expansion over the past year is an inevitable result of the industry moving away from extensive expansion toward high-quality development. This stems from stricter regulation compressing disorderly growth space, declining commissions and fund fee reductions forcing research institutes to control costs, and is directly related to artificial intelligence technology reshaping investment research paradigms.

Chen Xingwen further explained that AI efficiency in basic tasks such as data cleaning and financial report interpretation far exceeds human capabilities, reducing demand for junior analysts. Meanwhile, investment research is upgrading to an "AI + expert" model, allowing analysts to focus on logic construction and industry insights. This is similar to the transformation path of sell-side research after the introduction of the Fair Disclosure Rule in the US in the 1990s, also marking the maturation of the market.

Facing market changes, how should securities analysts plan their personal career development paths?

Chen Xingwen suggests that securities analysts need to keep pace with industry changes. On one hand, analysts should deeply cultivate specialized fields and strengthen industry understanding to provide differentiated insights; on the other hand, analysts must master AI technology. AI technologies such as natural language processing (NLP) and knowledge graphs can significantly improve the speed and accuracy of information processing, empowering investment research work.

**Differentiated Development**

Under the influence of multiple factors including commission rate policy reforms, especially in recent three years, brokerage fund allocation commissions have shown a year-over-year declining trend. In the first half of this year, total brokerage allocation commissions were 4.474 billion yuan, compared to 6.775 billion yuan in the same period last year, a decline of 34%.

Looking at individual institutions, most saw year-over-year declines in allocation commissions in the first half. Among the top four, CITIC Securities, GF Securities, and Changjiang Securities all saw declines exceeding 30%. However, after the merger of Sinolink Securities and Minsheng Securities, they strengthened their brokerage research business, with allocation commissions surging 139% year-over-year to 181 million yuan, jumping to sixth place in industry rankings. Additionally, Huafu Securities, Huayuan Securities and others also performed outstandingly, with allocation commissions increasing significantly year-over-year.

From a long-term perspective, how should brokerages develop their research business?

"Currently, commission rates at major brokerages have been cut to the point where there's 'no room for further reduction,' and competition among brokerages is gradually shifting to user service areas," Gong Tao stated. Retail investor services are becoming digitized through "investment advisors," while institutional client services are more focused on professionalization and refinement. He believes that securities analysts are "people-oriented," and cultivating a stable team of brand analysts is the goal pursued by major brokerages. Large brokerages can attract talent through salaries and company brands, while small brokerages can attract talent through advancement opportunities and more flexible policies.

Sui Dong suggests that large brokerage research institutes should fully leverage their scale and resource advantages, increase research investment, strengthen synergy between "investment banking + investment research + investment," and continuously improve research quality and internationalization to consolidate their market-leading positions. Small and medium-sized brokerages should avoid comprehensive competition with leading institutions and instead pursue "specialized + synergistic" development paths. Specifically, they can focus on specialized industries or regional economies to create differentiated research labels; strengthen internal synergy to provide research support for investment banking, asset management and other businesses, achieving internal value transformation; actively leverage digital tools to improve operational efficiency and achieve resource complementarity through cooperation with external institutions. In terms of talent, they need to optimize incentive mechanisms to stabilize core teams and gradually build reputation by precisely serving small and medium-sized institutional clients, gradually reducing dependence on traditional allocation commission income.

"Facing the current situation of declining fund allocation commissions under commission rate reforms and pressure on research institute performance, brokerages need to pursue differentiated development paths leveraging AI technology," Chen Xingwen believes. Leading brokerages should leverage capital and data advantages to integrate AI into research platform construction, connect business loops with investment banking and asset management, and build platform-type research ecosystems. For example, improving asset allocation and risk pricing capabilities through quantitative sentiment systems to consolidate market influence, consistent with the logic of international major investment banks like Goldman Sachs strengthening research barriers through technology; small and medium-sized brokerages can leverage AI to achieve "high output with small teams," focusing on specialized tracks such as new energy and specialized and sophisticated enterprises, combining regional client needs to create specialized labels. For example, using AI to deepen industrial chain data mining and precisely serve local institutions, similar to the breakthrough models of "dark horses" like Sinolink and Huayuan Securities.

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