Traders on the Kalshi platform project that West Texas Intermediate crude futures have not yet reached their peak for 2026. Users of this prediction market platform estimate there is over a 50% probability that oil prices will climb to nearly $127 per barrel this year, significantly exceeding the current closing high of around $113 set on April 7. Traders also assign a 63% likelihood to prices surpassing $120 per barrel.

Although West Texas Intermediate crude remains below the highs seen before the U.S. and Iran announced a ceasefire in the Middle East, it has recovered considerably from its low of $82.59 on April 17. Oil prices have once again risen above $100 per barrel, with Brent crude hitting a new post-war high this week. However, prices retreated on Friday after Iran submitted a revised peace proposal to the United States, despite President Donald Trump expressing dissatisfaction with the offer.

Uncertainty persists over Iran's plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. approach to lifting its maritime blockade of the vital waterway, leading to a partial recovery in West Texas Intermediate prices following the ceasefire. While traders believe oil prices have not yet peaked this year, their expected trading range has narrowed. In early April, before the ceasefire, traders saw a more than 50% chance of prices exceeding $150 per barrel. Today, that probability has dropped to just 26%.