Movement Alert|TSMC Falls 4.46% in Regular Trading, Q2 Profit Surges 77% but Capex Hike and Margin Guidance Trigger Sell-Off

Market Focus
07/17

On July 17, TSMC declined 4.46% in regular trading, trading at $389.86/share, with turnover of $1.625 billion. The sell-off continued for a second consecutive session following the company's Q2 earnings release.

TSMC reported Q2 net profit of NT$706.6 billion, surging 77.4% year-over-year and far exceeding the market consensus of NT$623.7 billion. Revenue reached NT$1.27 trillion, up 36% YoY, while gross margin hit a record 67.7%. However, the company raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance sharply from $52-56 billion to $60-64 billion, citing accelerated capacity buildout and equipment price inflation. Additionally, Q3 gross margin guidance of 65%-67% represents a sequential decline from Q2, driven by 2nm ramp dilution and overseas fab expansion costs.

Despite multiple Wall Street firms raising price targets — including Goldman Sachs to NT$3,100, TD Cowen to $440, and D.A. Davidson to $500 — the market exhibited a classic buy-the-expectation, sell-the-fact pattern. The stock had gained approximately 77% over the past year, and investors appear to be rotating out of chip names amid concerns over elevated valuations and AI infrastructure overcapacity risks. The broader semiconductor sector fell in tandem, with AMD down 7.37%, Intel down 6.9%, and NVIDIA down 4.08%.

(The above content is based on publicly available market information, generated by a program or algorithm, and is intended solely as a stock movement alert. It does not constitute investment advice or a basis for trading decisions.)

免責聲明:投資有風險,本文並非投資建議,以上內容不應被視為任何金融產品的購買或出售要約、建議或邀請,作者或其他用戶的任何相關討論、評論或帖子也不應被視為此類內容。本文僅供一般參考,不考慮您的個人投資目標、財務狀況或需求。TTM對信息的準確性和完整性不承擔任何責任或保證,投資者應自行研究並在投資前尋求專業建議。

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