U.S. Treasury Bonds Rally as ADP Employment Data Falls Far Short of Expectations

Deep News
2025/12/03

U.S. Treasury futures prices hit intraday highs after data showed that private-sector employment in November, as measured by Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP), declined by 32,000—significantly below the expected increase of 10,000. The October figure was revised upward by 5,000.

Yields on U.S. Treasuries fell by 2 to 4 basis points during the session, with mid-curve bonds leading the gains. Following the data release, the 2s5s30s spread dropped to its intraday low, while the 5s30s yield spread climbed to its session high, testing 111 basis points.

Overnight indexed swap (OIS) contracts tied to Federal Reserve meeting dates showed little movement. Market pricing implied a roughly 22-basis-point rate cut for the December meeting, with cumulative cuts of 30 basis points expected for the December and January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings combined.

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