While market debates over AI valuation bubbles persist, Goldman Sachs' latest buy-side survey report clearly states that AI will remain the dominant market theme in 2026.
According to feedback from over 35 investors surveyed in Singapore, investment logic in Taiwan's tech sector is becoming highly concentrated, with AI emerging as the only consensus-driven sector while non-AI segments continue to face weak interest. Simultaneously, attention on Google’s TPU supply chain and advanced packaging/testing has risen significantly, becoming the new focal points for investment.
Goldman Sachs advises investors to align with high-conviction AI plays but warns of risks tied to excessive short-term valuations and weaker-than-expected demand in certain areas.
**AI as the Sole Clear Theme, Non-AI Sectors Overlooked** The survey reveals that investor interest in Taiwan’s tech sector is heavily skewed toward AI. Most respondents view AI as the only segment with clear growth prospects by 2026, while non-AI end markets like consumer electronics and industrials are seen as "directionless," with persistently low interest in related stocks.
Notably, investor enthusiasm for Google’s TPU supply chain is expanding rapidly—from core ecosystem players to secondary beneficiaries such as testing and probe card suppliers—creating fresh opportunities in niche segments.
Additionally, as chip design complexity rises, semiconductor testing is witnessing "structural dollar-content growth," where per-chip testing costs surge, offering sustained growth potential for testing equipment and service providers. This forms a solid sub-theme within the broader AI trend.
**TPU Supply Chain in Spotlight, CoWoS Faces Short-Term Pressure** Sentiment varies sharply across sub-sectors. On one hand, Google TPU supply chain-related stocks are drawing heavy investor focus. Goldman highlights semiconductor testing suppliers WinWay and MPI for potential re-rating: WinWay stands to benefit from incremental demand for system-level testing (SLT) in AI ASICs, while MPI plans to supply VPC probe cards for Google TPUs by 2026. The bank forecasts 42% and 46% revenue growth for the two firms in 2026, maintaining "Buy" ratings.
On the other hand, CoWoS equipment players (e.g., Gudeng Precision, Singulus) face near-term caution. Two concerns dominate: first, TSMC’s 2026 capex guidance may fall below optimistic market expectations, pressuring equipment demand; second, the segment’s earnings momentum appears weaker, prompting some capital rotation toward more resilient areas like memory.
However, Goldman argues the market may be overreacting to short-term volatility, emphasizing that advanced packaging retains solid long-term structural demand. With OSAT contributions rising post-2027 and new technologies like CPO driving equipment upgrades, the sector could see renewed growth catalysts.