Bank of America Securities has revised its earnings forecast for PETROCHINA (ASX: 00857), lowering the target price from HK$12 to HK$11 while reiterating a "Buy" rating.

The adjustment reflects updated assumptions for Brent crude oil prices, now projected at $77 per barrel for the second half of 2026 and $70 per barrel for the full year 2027, leading to an 8% reduction in the firm's profit forecasts for the 2026 and 2027 fiscal years.

The bank's analysis highlights China's role as a significant swing factor in global oil consumption. Recent customs data indicates China's crude oil imports in May fell by 29% year-over-year to 7.8 million barrels per day.

With shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually normalizing, the bank anticipates China will increase its crude imports incrementally rather than rapidly returning to pre-U.S.-Iran conflict levels.

Several factors underpin this gradual recovery outlook, including ample existing crude inventories, weak domestic demand leading to low refinery utilization rates, and persistent logistical bottlenecks.

Consequently, Bank of America Securities has lowered its 2026 crude oil demand forecast for China to 15 million barrels per day, representing a 5% year-over-year decline.

The net import forecast for the same year has been revised down to 10.6 million barrels per day, an 8% decrease from previous estimates.

In a related development, the penetration rate of natural gas is slowing due to high costs and weak profitability among major industrial users.

As a result, the bank has reduced its forecast for year-over-year natural gas demand growth in 2026 to just 1% and pushed the timeline for a more substantial demand recovery out to 2027.